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St. Joseph, MI · ZIP 49091 · Census Tract 26149040500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$192K
Downside (P10)
$147K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$192K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$271K
+41% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $105K | $97K | $98K | $96K | $100K | $104K | $127K | $153K | $172K | $186K | $192K | $193K | $192K | $192K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$87,314 | -$95,114 | -$93,714 | -$95,714 | -$92,214 | -$88,614 | -$65,414 | -$39,014 | -$20,214 | -$6,214 | +$1,001 | -$123 | -$491 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -45.4% | -49.5% | -48.8% | -49.8% | -48.0% | -46.1% | -34.0% | -20.3% | -10.5% | -3.2% | +0.5% | -0.1% | -0.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $168K | $162K | $147K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $230K | $248K | $271K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$168K to $230K
32.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$147K to $271K
64.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturgis | $189K | $192K | +1.5% | |
| White Pigeon area | $175K | $194K | +11.2% | |
| Leonidas area | $190K | $209K | +10.1% | |
| Colon | $198K | $215K | +9.0% | |
| Florence area | $189K | $206K | +8.5% | |
| Lockport area | $194K | $209K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturgis | $189K | $192K | +1.5% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 202086) | $967K | $1.28M | +32.4% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 200428) | $938K | $1.19M | +27.3% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 201524) | $985K | $1.25M | +26.6% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 201207) | $1.01M | $1.27M | +25.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 201223) | $895K | $1.12M | +25.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturgis | $189K | $192K | $124K | |
| Three Rivers area (Tract 040200) | $106K | $118K | $75K | |
| Burr Oak | $152K | $174K | $74K | |
| Sturgis (Tract 040600) | $149K | $171K | $71K | |
| Three Rivers area (Tract 040400) | $117K | $134K | $67K | |
| Sturgis (Tract 040700) | $111K | $114K | $54K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
St. Joseph, MI · ZIP 49091 · Census Tract 26149040500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$192K
Downside (P10)
$147K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$192K
-0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$271K
+41% by 2030
Base case: -0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $105K | $97K | $98K | $96K | $100K | $104K | $127K | $153K | $172K | $186K | $192K | $193K | $192K | $192K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$87,314 | -$95,114 | -$93,714 | -$95,714 | -$92,214 | -$88,614 | -$65,414 | -$39,014 | -$20,214 | -$6,214 | +$1,001 | -$123 | -$491 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -45.4% | -49.5% | -48.8% | -49.8% | -48.0% | -46.1% | -34.0% | -20.3% | -10.5% | -3.2% | +0.5% | -0.1% | -0.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $168K | $162K | $147K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $230K | $248K | $271K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$168K to $230K
32.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$147K to $271K
64.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturgis | $189K | $192K | +1.5% | |
| White Pigeon area | $175K | $194K | +11.2% | |
| Leonidas area | $190K | $209K | +10.1% | |
| Colon | $198K | $215K | +9.0% | |
| Florence area | $189K | $206K | +8.5% | |
| Lockport area | $194K | $209K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturgis | $189K | $192K | +1.5% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 202086) | $967K | $1.28M | +32.4% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 200428) | $938K | $1.19M | +27.3% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 201524) | $985K | $1.25M | +26.6% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 201207) | $1.01M | $1.27M | +25.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 201223) | $895K | $1.12M | +25.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturgis | $189K | $192K | $124K | |
| Three Rivers area (Tract 040200) | $106K | $118K | $75K | |
| Burr Oak | $152K | $174K | $74K | |
| Sturgis (Tract 040600) | $149K | $171K | $71K | |
| Three Rivers area (Tract 040400) | $117K | $134K | $67K | |
| Sturgis (Tract 040700) | $111K | $114K | $54K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
