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St. Joseph, MI · Census Tract 26149202743 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$702K
Downside (P10)
$535K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$763K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.07M
+52% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $702K | $720K | $689K | $713K | $763K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$18,374 | -$13,104 | +$11,713 | +$61,145 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +2.6% | -1.9% | +1.7% | +8.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $592K | $539K | $515K | $535K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $871K | $936K | $980K | $1.1M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$592K to $871K
38.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$535K to $1.1M
69.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 202743 | $702K | $763K | +8.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 203506) | $690K | $847K | +22.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 203205) | $693K | $827K | +19.2% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 202866) | $719K | $831K | +15.5% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 203085) | $684K | $760K | +11.1% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 202769) | $697K | $765K | +9.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 202743 | $702K | $763K | +8.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 202086) | $967K | $1.37M | +41.6% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 200729) | $999K | $1.40M | +39.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 200428) | $938K | $1.30M | +38.5% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 201524) | $985K | $1.36M | +38.4% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 200363) | $934K | $1.29M | +38.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 202743 | $702K | $763K | $533K | |
| Sturgis (Tract 040600) | $154K | $171K | $71K | |
| Three Rivers area | $117K | $134K | $67K | |
| Nottawa | $230K | $239K | $61K | |
| Sturgis (Tract 040700) | $111K | $114K | $54K | |
| Florence area | $190K | $196K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
St. Joseph, MI · Census Tract 26149202743 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$702K
Downside (P10)
$535K
-24% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$763K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.07M
+52% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -24% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $702K | $720K | $689K | $713K | $763K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$18,374 | -$13,104 | +$11,713 | +$61,145 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +2.6% | -1.9% | +1.7% | +8.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $592K | $539K | $515K | $535K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $871K | $936K | $980K | $1.1M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$592K to $871K
38.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$535K to $1.1M
69.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 202743 | $702K | $763K | +8.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 203506) | $690K | $847K | +22.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 203205) | $693K | $827K | +19.2% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 202866) | $719K | $831K | +15.5% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 203085) | $684K | $760K | +11.1% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 202769) | $697K | $765K | +9.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 202743 | $702K | $763K | +8.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 202086) | $967K | $1.37M | +41.6% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 200729) | $999K | $1.40M | +39.7% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 200428) | $938K | $1.30M | +38.5% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 201524) | $985K | $1.36M | +38.4% | |
| St. Joseph (Tract 200363) | $934K | $1.29M | +38.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 202743 | $702K | $763K | $533K | |
| Sturgis (Tract 040600) | $154K | $171K | $71K | |
| Three Rivers area | $117K | $134K | $67K | |
| Nottawa | $230K | $239K | $61K | |
| Sturgis (Tract 040700) | $111K | $114K | $54K | |
| Florence area | $190K | $196K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
