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Washington, MD · ZIP 21782 · Census Tract 24043011600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$316K
Downside (P10)
$267K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$360K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$446K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $213K | $230K | $237K | $233K | $237K | $237K | $238K | $277K | $290K | $312K | $316K | $323K | $348K | $360K |
| YoY Change | +7.9% | +3.0% | -1.6% | +1.5% | +0.2% | +0.5% | +16.1% | +4.8% | +7.7% | +1.1% | +2.4% | +7.8% | +3.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $268K | $271K | $267K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $373K | $409K | $446K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$268K to $373K
32.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$267K to $446K
49.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Sharpsburg | $317K | $360K | +13.7% | |
| 15, Indian Spring | $322K | $377K | +16.9% | |
| 20, Downsville | $318K | $360K | +13.2% | |
| 10, Funkstown | $319K | $354K | +11.0% | |
| 2, Williamsport | $308K | $338K | +9.8% | |
| 7, Smithsburg | $330K | $355K | +7.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Sharpsburg | $317K | $360K | +13.7% | |
| 15, Indian Spring | $322K | $377K | +16.9% | |
| 2, Williamsport | $267K | $306K | +14.3% | |
| Hagerstown | $244K | $277K | +13.6% | |
| 20, Downsville | $318K | $360K | +13.2% | |
| 18, Chewsville | $286K | $322K | +12.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Sharpsburg | $317K | $360K | $179K | |
| 24, Cedar Lawn area | $164K | $179K | $125K | |
| Hagerstown (Tract 000500) | $194K | $204K | $118K | |
| Hagerstown (Tract 000700) | $187K | $205K | $110K | |
| 14, Ringgold | $203K | $206K | $109K | |
| Hagerstown (Tract 000302) | $127K | $140K | $75K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.