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Montgomery, MD · ZIP 20874 · Census Tract 24031700604 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$960K
Downside (P10)
$770K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.04M
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.40M
+46% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $733K | $728K | $734K | $767K | $745K | $732K | $761K | $903K | $908K | $958K | $960K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$227,310 | -$231,510 | -$225,710 | -$192,910 | -$215,410 | -$227,610 | -$199,010 | -$57,410 | -$51,510 | -$1,710 | +$49,555 | +$63,364 | +$75,742 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.7% | -24.1% | -23.5% | -20.1% | -22.4% | -23.7% | -20.7% | -6.0% | -5.4% | -0.2% | +5.2% | +6.6% | +7.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $828K | $773K | $770K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$828K to $1.2M
39.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$770K to $1.4M
60.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnestown | $955K | $1.04M | +8.5% | |
| 4 (Tract 701002) | $957K | $1.07M | +11.3% | |
| 11 | $923K | $1.01M | +9.3% | |
| Takoma Park (Tract 701701) | $909K | $982K | +8.1% | |
| Takoma Park (Tract 701800) | $937K | $1.01M | +7.8% | |
| 4 (Tract 701210) | $981K | $1.00M | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnestown | $955K | $1.04M | +8.5% | |
| 2 | $734K | $892K | +21.5% | |
| Silver Spring (Tract 701602) | $504K | $611K | +21.2% | |
| Silver Spring (Tract 702000) | $405K | $478K | +18.0% | |
| North Bethesda | $477K | $559K | +17.1% | |
| Germantown | $380K | $444K | +16.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnestown | $955K | $1.04M | $627K | |
| Germantown (Tract 700614) | $333K | $373K | $172K | |
| Germantown (Tract 700834) | $341K | $381K | $162K | |
| 9 | $392K | $421K | $162K | |
| Montgomery Village | $221K | $231K | $152K | |
| Gaithersburg | $167K | $182K | $92K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Montgomery, MD · ZIP 20874 · Census Tract 24031700604 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$960K
Downside (P10)
$770K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.04M
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.40M
+46% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $733K | $728K | $734K | $767K | $745K | $732K | $761K | $903K | $908K | $958K | $960K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$227,310 | -$231,510 | -$225,710 | -$192,910 | -$215,410 | -$227,610 | -$199,010 | -$57,410 | -$51,510 | -$1,710 | +$49,555 | +$63,364 | +$75,742 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -23.7% | -24.1% | -23.5% | -20.1% | -22.4% | -23.7% | -20.7% | -6.0% | -5.4% | -0.2% | +5.2% | +6.6% | +7.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $828K | $773K | $770K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$828K to $1.2M
39.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$770K to $1.4M
60.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnestown | $955K | $1.04M | +8.5% | |
| 4 (Tract 701002) | $957K | $1.07M | +11.3% | |
| 11 | $923K | $1.01M | +9.3% | |
| Takoma Park (Tract 701701) | $909K | $982K | +8.1% | |
| Takoma Park (Tract 701800) | $937K | $1.01M | +7.8% | |
| 4 (Tract 701210) | $981K | $1.00M | +1.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnestown | $955K | $1.04M | +8.5% | |
| 2 | $734K | $892K | +21.5% | |
| Silver Spring (Tract 701602) | $504K | $611K | +21.2% | |
| Silver Spring (Tract 702000) | $405K | $478K | +18.0% | |
| North Bethesda | $477K | $559K | +17.1% | |
| Germantown | $380K | $444K | +16.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnestown | $955K | $1.04M | $627K | |
| Germantown (Tract 700614) | $333K | $373K | $172K | |
| Germantown (Tract 700834) | $341K | $381K | $162K | |
| 9 | $392K | $421K | $162K | |
| Montgomery Village | $221K | $231K | $152K | |
| Gaithersburg | $167K | $182K | $92K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
