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Harford, MD · ZIP 21154 · Census Tract 24025305100 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$445K
Downside (P10)
$395K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$474K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$601K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $339K | $328K | $335K | $346K | $352K | $370K | $373K | $396K | $437K | $440K | $445K | $462K | $466K | $474K |
| YoY Change | -3.3% | +2.1% | +3.3% | +2.0% | +5.0% | +0.8% | +6.2% | +10.4% | +0.7% | +1.0% | +4.0% | +0.7% | +1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $402K | $404K | $395K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $530K | $577K | $601K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$402K to $530K
27.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$395K to $601K
43.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Dublin | $450K | $474K | +5.3% | |
| 4, Marshall | $461K | $541K | +17.2% | |
| 3, Bel Air (Tract 303900) | $422K | $495K | +17.2% | |
| 3, Bel Air (Tract 303201) | $469K | $522K | +11.1% | |
| 6, Havre de Grace | $425K | $456K | +7.3% | |
| Bel Air North | $459K | $486K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Dublin | $450K | $474K | +5.3% | |
| 4, Marshall | $461K | $541K | +17.2% | |
| 3, Bel Air | $422K | $495K | +17.2% | |
| 5, Dublin | $418K | $486K | +16.1% | |
| 2, Halls Cross Roads | $368K | $426K | +15.6% | |
| 1, Abingdon | $327K | $374K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Dublin | $450K | $474K | $206K | |
| Joppatowne | $324K | $348K | $150K | |
| 3, Bel Air | $292K | $315K | $145K | |
| Aberdeen | $236K | $258K | $140K | |
| Edgewood | $191K | $219K | $131K | |
| 2, Halls Cross Roads | $160K | $181K | $85K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.