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Garrett, MD · ZIP 21532 · Census Tract 24023000300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$286K
Downside (P10)
$249K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$325K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$433K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $168K | $178K | $176K | $180K | $180K | $198K | $207K | $239K | $264K | $290K | $286K | $296K | $324K | $325K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$118,141 | -$107,941 | -$110,641 | -$106,641 | -$106,041 | -$88,041 | -$79,141 | -$46,841 | -$21,941 | +$3,759 | +$9,576 | +$38,347 | +$39,260 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.3% | -37.7% | -38.7% | -37.3% | -37.1% | -30.8% | -27.7% | -16.4% | -7.7% | +1.3% | +3.3% | +13.4% | +13.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $251K | $242K | $249K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $370K | $406K | $433K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$251K to $370K
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$249K to $433K
56.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Avilton area | $291K | $325K | +11.6% | |
| 2, Friendsville area | $215K | $244K | +13.6% | |
| 14, West Oakland | $245K | $270K | +10.3% | |
| 3, Grantsville area | $211K | $232K | +10.1% | |
| 8, Red House area | $215K | $229K | +6.7% | |
| 14, West Oakland area | $237K | $250K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Avilton area | $291K | $325K | +11.6% | |
| 1, Swanton area (Tract 000400) | $151K | $173K | +14.5% | |
| 14, West Oakland area | $441K | $503K | +14.1% | |
| 1, Swanton area (Tract 000501) | $502K | $572K | +14.0% | |
| 2, Friendsville area | $215K | $244K | +13.6% | |
| 14, West Oakland | $245K | $270K | +10.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Avilton area | $291K | $325K | $184K | |
| 8, Red House area | $215K | $229K | $144K | |
| 14, West Oakland | $245K | $270K | $142K | |
| 14, West Oakland area | $237K | $250K | $139K | |
| 3, Grantsville area | $211K | $232K | $133K | |
| 1, Swanton area | $151K | $173K | $94K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Garrett, MD · ZIP 21532 · Census Tract 24023000300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$286K
Downside (P10)
$249K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$325K
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$433K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $168K | $178K | $176K | $180K | $180K | $198K | $207K | $239K | $264K | $290K | $286K | $296K | $324K | $325K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$118,141 | -$107,941 | -$110,641 | -$106,641 | -$106,041 | -$88,041 | -$79,141 | -$46,841 | -$21,941 | +$3,759 | +$9,576 | +$38,347 | +$39,260 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.3% | -37.7% | -38.7% | -37.3% | -37.1% | -30.8% | -27.7% | -16.4% | -7.7% | +1.3% | +3.3% | +13.4% | +13.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $251K | $242K | $249K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $370K | $406K | $433K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$251K to $370K
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$249K to $433K
56.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Avilton area | $291K | $325K | +11.6% | |
| 2, Friendsville area | $215K | $244K | +13.6% | |
| 14, West Oakland | $245K | $270K | +10.3% | |
| 3, Grantsville area | $211K | $232K | +10.1% | |
| 8, Red House area | $215K | $229K | +6.7% | |
| 14, West Oakland area | $237K | $250K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Avilton area | $291K | $325K | +11.6% | |
| 1, Swanton area (Tract 000400) | $151K | $173K | +14.5% | |
| 14, West Oakland area | $441K | $503K | +14.1% | |
| 1, Swanton area (Tract 000501) | $502K | $572K | +14.0% | |
| 2, Friendsville area | $215K | $244K | +13.6% | |
| 14, West Oakland | $245K | $270K | +10.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Avilton area | $291K | $325K | $184K | |
| 8, Red House area | $215K | $229K | $144K | |
| 14, West Oakland | $245K | $270K | $142K | |
| 14, West Oakland area | $237K | $250K | $139K | |
| 3, Grantsville area | $211K | $232K | $133K | |
| 1, Swanton area | $151K | $173K | $94K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
