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Frederick, MD · ZIP 21793 · Census Tract 24021773500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$407K
Downside (P10)
$334K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$431K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$558K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $251K | $244K | $259K | $258K | $265K | $287K | $298K | $333K | $340K | $403K | $407K | $420K | $418K | $431K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$155,853 | -$163,453 | -$148,153 | -$149,653 | -$142,253 | -$120,553 | -$109,153 | -$74,653 | -$67,753 | -$4,453 | +$12,997 | +$10,929 | +$24,238 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.3% | -40.1% | -36.4% | -36.7% | -34.9% | -29.6% | -26.8% | -18.3% | -16.6% | -1.1% | +3.2% | +2.7% | +6.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $347K | $343K | $334K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $482K | $516K | $558K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$347K to $482K
32.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$334K to $558K
51.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26, Walkersville | $407K | $431K | +6.1% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750100) | $422K | $479K | +13.5% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750805) | $410K | $459K | +11.8% | |
| 15, Thurmont area | $416K | $464K | +11.6% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750701) | $409K | $439K | +7.4% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $415K | $430K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26, Walkersville | $407K | $431K | +6.1% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $377K | $443K | +17.2% | |
| 3, Middletown area | $528K | $618K | +17.0% | |
| Frederick | $334K | $388K | +16.4% | |
| Green Valley | $582K | $673K | +15.7% | |
| 7, Urbana | $633K | $726K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26, Walkersville | $407K | $431K | $223K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750508) | $427K | $454K | $196K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750300) | $334K | $388K | $192K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750507) | $298K | $309K | $167K | |
| Brunswick | $277K | $280K | $159K | |
| 23, Ballenger | $381K | $402K | $156K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Frederick, MD · ZIP 21793 · Census Tract 24021773500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$407K
Downside (P10)
$334K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$431K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$558K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $251K | $244K | $259K | $258K | $265K | $287K | $298K | $333K | $340K | $403K | $407K | $420K | $418K | $431K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$155,853 | -$163,453 | -$148,153 | -$149,653 | -$142,253 | -$120,553 | -$109,153 | -$74,653 | -$67,753 | -$4,453 | +$12,997 | +$10,929 | +$24,238 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -38.3% | -40.1% | -36.4% | -36.7% | -34.9% | -29.6% | -26.8% | -18.3% | -16.6% | -1.1% | +3.2% | +2.7% | +6.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $347K | $343K | $334K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $482K | $516K | $558K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$347K to $482K
32.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$334K to $558K
51.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26, Walkersville | $407K | $431K | +6.1% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750100) | $422K | $479K | +13.5% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750805) | $410K | $459K | +11.8% | |
| 15, Thurmont area | $416K | $464K | +11.6% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750701) | $409K | $439K | +7.4% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $415K | $430K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26, Walkersville | $407K | $431K | +6.1% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $377K | $443K | +17.2% | |
| 3, Middletown area | $528K | $618K | +17.0% | |
| Frederick | $334K | $388K | +16.4% | |
| Green Valley | $582K | $673K | +15.7% | |
| 7, Urbana | $633K | $726K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26, Walkersville | $407K | $431K | $223K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750508) | $427K | $454K | $196K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750300) | $334K | $388K | $192K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750507) | $298K | $309K | $167K | |
| Brunswick | $277K | $280K | $159K | |
| 23, Ballenger | $381K | $402K | $156K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
