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Frederick, MD · ZIP 21701 · Census Tract 24021750200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$555K
Downside (P10)
$467K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$613K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$868K
+57% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $391K | $386K | $438K | $490K | $462K | $484K | $461K | $496K | $524K | $546K | $555K | $595K | $603K | $613K | $571K |
| YoY Change | -1.4% | +13.5% | +11.9% | -5.8% | +4.9% | -4.7% | +7.5% | +5.7% | +4.2% | +1.5% | +7.2% | +1.4% | +1.6% | -7.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $494K | $471K | $467K | $500K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $718K | $791K | $868K | $646K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$494K to $718K
37.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$500K to $646K
25.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick · 21701 · (Tract 7502) | $559K | $613K | +9.8% | |
| 21, Tuscarora area (Tract 751203) | $553K | $608K | +9.9% | |
| 21, Tuscarora | $540K | $585K | +8.3% | |
| 21, Tuscarora area (Tract 751201) | $551K | $593K | +7.5% | |
| 3, Middletown | $552K | $591K | +7.0% | |
| 17, Johnsville | $554K | $561K | +1.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick · 21701 · (Tract 7502) | $559K | $613K | +9.8% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $377K | $443K | +17.2% | |
| 3, Middletown area | $528K | $618K | +17.0% | |
| Frederick | $334K | $388K | +16.4% | |
| Green Valley | $582K | $673K | +15.7% | |
| 7, Urbana | $633K | $726K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick · 21701 · (Tract 7502) | $559K | $613K | $401K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750508) | $427K | $454K | $196K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750300) | $334K | $388K | $192K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750507) | $298K | $309K | $167K | |
| Brunswick | $277K | $280K | $159K | |
| 23, Ballenger | $381K | $402K | $156K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.