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Frederick, MD · Census Tract 24021640001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.21M
Downside (P10)
$750K
-38% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.22M
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.90M
+57% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -38% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 48% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$74,363 | -$9,911 | -$50,899 | +$10,531 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +6.1% | -0.8% | -4.2% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $937K | $832K | $746K | $750K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.9M |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$937K to $1.7M
58.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$750K to $1.9M
93.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 640001 | $1.21M | $1.22M | +0.9% | |
| Frederick (Tract 040009) | $1.11M | $1.19M | +6.8% | |
| Green Valley | $680K | $715K | +5.1% | |
| 7, Urbana area | $659K | $690K | +4.7% | |
| Frederick (Tract 840005) | $1.06M | $1.03M | -2.5% | |
| Frederick (Tract 200001) | $953K | $911K | -4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 640001 | $1.21M | $1.22M | +0.9% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750300) | $337K | $388K | +15.4% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750100) | $416K | $479K | +15.1% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $385K | $443K | +14.8% | |
| 3, Middletown area | $541K | $618K | +14.2% | |
| 7, Urbana | $656K | $746K | +13.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 640001 | $1.21M | $1.22M | $1.15M | |
| 7, Urbana | $649K | $658K | $143K | |
| 3, Middletown | $539K | $559K | $132K | |
| 1, Buckeystown | $597K | $597K | $125K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750507) | $303K | $303K | $73K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750505) | $309K | $315K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Frederick, MD · Census Tract 24021640001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.21M
Downside (P10)
$750K
-38% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.22M
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.90M
+57% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -38% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 48% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$74,363 | -$9,911 | -$50,899 | +$10,531 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +6.1% | -0.8% | -4.2% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $937K | $832K | $746K | $750K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.9M |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$937K to $1.7M
58.7% of median
Long-horizon band
$750K to $1.9M
93.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 640001 | $1.21M | $1.22M | +0.9% | |
| Frederick (Tract 040009) | $1.11M | $1.19M | +6.8% | |
| Green Valley | $680K | $715K | +5.1% | |
| 7, Urbana area | $659K | $690K | +4.7% | |
| Frederick (Tract 840005) | $1.06M | $1.03M | -2.5% | |
| Frederick (Tract 200001) | $953K | $911K | -4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 640001 | $1.21M | $1.22M | +0.9% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750300) | $337K | $388K | +15.4% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750100) | $416K | $479K | +15.1% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $385K | $443K | +14.8% | |
| 3, Middletown area | $541K | $618K | +14.2% | |
| 7, Urbana | $656K | $746K | +13.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 640001 | $1.21M | $1.22M | $1.15M | |
| 7, Urbana | $649K | $658K | $143K | |
| 3, Middletown | $539K | $559K | $132K | |
| 1, Buckeystown | $597K | $597K | $125K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750507) | $303K | $303K | $73K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750505) | $309K | $315K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
