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Frederick, MD · ZIP 21788 · Census Tract 24021753002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$319K
Downside (P10)
$274K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$320K
+0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$513K
+61% by 2030
Base case: +0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +61%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $216K | $207K | $200K | $206K | $218K | $221K | $241K | $251K | $275K | $309K | $319K | $323K | $329K | $320K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$103,587 | -$112,387 | -$119,487 | -$113,587 | -$100,987 | -$98,487 | -$78,587 | -$68,787 | -$44,287 | -$10,187 | +$3,853 | +$9,554 | +$574 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.4% | -35.2% | -37.4% | -35.6% | -31.6% | -30.8% | -24.6% | -21.5% | -13.9% | -3.2% | +1.2% | +3.0% | +0.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $254K | $269K | $274K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $409K | $466K | $513K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$254K to $409K
48.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$274K to $513K
74.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Thurmont · Thurmont · (Tract 7530.2) | $312K | $320K | +2.4% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750300) | $334K | $388K | +16.4% | |
| 5, Emmitsburg | $334K | $378K | +13.2% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $353K | $381K | +8.1% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750505) | $305K | $321K | +5.3% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750507) | $298K | $309K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Thurmont · Thurmont · (Tract 7530.2) | $312K | $320K | +2.4% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $377K | $443K | +17.2% | |
| 3, Middletown area | $528K | $618K | +17.0% | |
| Frederick | $334K | $388K | +16.4% | |
| Green Valley | $582K | $673K | +15.7% | |
| 7, Urbana | $633K | $726K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Thurmont · Thurmont · (Tract 7530.2) | $312K | $320K | $240K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750508) | $427K | $454K | $196K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750300) | $334K | $388K | $192K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750507) | $298K | $309K | $167K | |
| Brunswick | $277K | $280K | $159K | |
| 23, Ballenger | $381K | $402K | $156K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Frederick, MD · ZIP 21788 · Census Tract 24021753002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$319K
Downside (P10)
$274K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$320K
+0% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$513K
+61% by 2030
Base case: +0% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +61%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $216K | $207K | $200K | $206K | $218K | $221K | $241K | $251K | $275K | $309K | $319K | $323K | $329K | $320K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$103,587 | -$112,387 | -$119,487 | -$113,587 | -$100,987 | -$98,487 | -$78,587 | -$68,787 | -$44,287 | -$10,187 | +$3,853 | +$9,554 | +$574 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -32.4% | -35.2% | -37.4% | -35.6% | -31.6% | -30.8% | -24.6% | -21.5% | -13.9% | -3.2% | +1.2% | +3.0% | +0.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $254K | $269K | $274K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $409K | $466K | $513K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$254K to $409K
48.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$274K to $513K
74.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Thurmont · Thurmont · (Tract 7530.2) | $312K | $320K | +2.4% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750300) | $334K | $388K | +16.4% | |
| 5, Emmitsburg | $334K | $378K | +13.2% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $353K | $381K | +8.1% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750505) | $305K | $321K | +5.3% | |
| Frederick (Tract 750507) | $298K | $309K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Thurmont · Thurmont · (Tract 7530.2) | $312K | $320K | +2.4% | |
| Ballenger Creek | $377K | $443K | +17.2% | |
| 3, Middletown area | $528K | $618K | +17.0% | |
| Frederick | $334K | $388K | +16.4% | |
| Green Valley | $582K | $673K | +15.7% | |
| 7, Urbana | $633K | $726K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15, Thurmont · Thurmont · (Tract 7530.2) | $312K | $320K | $240K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750508) | $427K | $454K | $196K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750300) | $334K | $388K | $192K | |
| Frederick (Tract 750507) | $298K | $309K | $167K | |
| Brunswick | $277K | $280K | $159K | |
| 23, Ballenger | $381K | $402K | $156K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
