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Charles, MD · ZIP 20611 · Census Tract 24017851100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$521K
Downside (P10)
$432K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$515K
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$709K
+36% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $346K | $349K | $341K | $331K | $333K | $346K | $380K | $423K | $471K | $506K | $521K | $521K | $536K | $515K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$175,536 | -$172,236 | -$180,536 | -$190,436 | -$188,436 | -$175,136 | -$141,036 | -$98,736 | -$50,636 | -$15,236 | -$749 | +$14,209 | -$6,329 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.7% | -33.0% | -34.6% | -36.5% | -36.1% | -33.6% | -27.1% | -18.9% | -9.7% | -2.9% | -0.1% | +2.7% | -1.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $459K | $432K | $432K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $617K | $666K | $709K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$459K to $617K
30.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$432K to $709K
53.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Allens Fresh area | $513K | $515K | +0.4% | |
| 4, Allens Fresh | $541K | $629K | +16.3% | |
| Near 7, Pomonkey | $499K | $565K | +13.2% | |
| Bensville (Tract 850713) | $533K | $603K | +13.2% | |
| 8, Bryantown | $549K | $621K | +13.1% | |
| Bensville (Tract 850712) | $494K | $515K | +4.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Allens Fresh area | $513K | $515K | +0.4% | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850901) | $326K | $393K | +20.7% | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850905) | $374K | $438K | +17.2% | |
| 4, Allens Fresh | $541K | $629K | +16.3% | |
| 1, La Plata | $473K | $546K | +15.6% | |
| 8, Bryantown | $466K | $530K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Allens Fresh area | $513K | $515K | $276K | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850902) | $360K | $386K | $203K | |
| 7, Pomonkey area | $267K | $298K | $197K | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850906) | $358K | $405K | $195K | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850709) | $353K | $401K | $190K | |
| 7, Pomonkey | $244K | $271K | $127K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Charles, MD · ZIP 20611 · Census Tract 24017851100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$521K
Downside (P10)
$432K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$515K
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$709K
+36% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $346K | $349K | $341K | $331K | $333K | $346K | $380K | $423K | $471K | $506K | $521K | $521K | $536K | $515K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$175,536 | -$172,236 | -$180,536 | -$190,436 | -$188,436 | -$175,136 | -$141,036 | -$98,736 | -$50,636 | -$15,236 | -$749 | +$14,209 | -$6,329 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.7% | -33.0% | -34.6% | -36.5% | -36.1% | -33.6% | -27.1% | -18.9% | -9.7% | -2.9% | -0.1% | +2.7% | -1.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $459K | $432K | $432K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $617K | $666K | $709K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$459K to $617K
30.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$432K to $709K
53.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Allens Fresh area | $513K | $515K | +0.4% | |
| 4, Allens Fresh | $541K | $629K | +16.3% | |
| Near 7, Pomonkey | $499K | $565K | +13.2% | |
| Bensville (Tract 850713) | $533K | $603K | +13.2% | |
| 8, Bryantown | $549K | $621K | +13.1% | |
| Bensville (Tract 850712) | $494K | $515K | +4.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Allens Fresh area | $513K | $515K | +0.4% | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850901) | $326K | $393K | +20.7% | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850905) | $374K | $438K | +17.2% | |
| 4, Allens Fresh | $541K | $629K | +16.3% | |
| 1, La Plata | $473K | $546K | +15.6% | |
| 8, Bryantown | $466K | $530K | +13.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Allens Fresh area | $513K | $515K | $276K | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850902) | $360K | $386K | $203K | |
| 7, Pomonkey area | $267K | $298K | $197K | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850906) | $358K | $405K | $195K | |
| Waldorf (Tract 850709) | $353K | $401K | $190K | |
| 7, Pomonkey | $244K | $271K | $127K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
