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Warren, KY · ZIP 42104 · Census Tract 21227010702 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$273K
Downside (P10)
$246K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$290K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$461K
+69% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +69%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $164K | $163K | $174K | $189K | $191K | $207K | $216K | $232K | $250K | $269K | $273K | $282K | $289K | $290K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$109,068 | -$110,268 | -$99,268 | -$83,668 | -$81,968 | -$66,368 | -$57,268 | -$41,568 | -$22,668 | -$3,868 | +$8,971 | +$15,688 | +$17,171 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.9% | -40.4% | -36.4% | -30.6% | -30.0% | -24.3% | -21.0% | -15.2% | -8.3% | -1.4% | +3.3% | +5.7% | +6.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $242K | $245K | $246K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $345K | $388K | $461K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$242K to $345K
36.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$246K to $461K
74.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green · 42104 · (Tract 107.2) | $273K | $290K | +6.3% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010500) | $265K | $303K | +14.3% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011100) | $253K | $285K | +12.8% | |
| Alvaton | $289K | $318K | +10.2% | |
| Woodburn | $241K | $260K | +7.8% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010701) | $311K | $331K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green · 42104 · (Tract 107.2) | $273K | $290K | +6.3% | |
| Greencastle | $212K | $245K | +15.3% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011002) | $215K | $248K | +15.0% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010500) | $265K | $303K | +14.3% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011100) | $253K | $285K | +12.8% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010804) | $215K | $240K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green · 42104 · (Tract 107.2) | $273K | $290K | $215K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010900) | $229K | $233K | $107K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011200) | $145K | $157K | $85K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011300) | $175K | $188K | $78K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010200) | $100K | $104K | $48K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010300) | $89K | $95K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Warren, KY · ZIP 42104 · Census Tract 21227010702 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$273K
Downside (P10)
$246K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$290K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$461K
+69% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +69%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $164K | $163K | $174K | $189K | $191K | $207K | $216K | $232K | $250K | $269K | $273K | $282K | $289K | $290K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$109,068 | -$110,268 | -$99,268 | -$83,668 | -$81,968 | -$66,368 | -$57,268 | -$41,568 | -$22,668 | -$3,868 | +$8,971 | +$15,688 | +$17,171 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.9% | -40.4% | -36.4% | -30.6% | -30.0% | -24.3% | -21.0% | -15.2% | -8.3% | -1.4% | +3.3% | +5.7% | +6.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $242K | $245K | $246K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $345K | $388K | $461K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$242K to $345K
36.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$246K to $461K
74.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green · 42104 · (Tract 107.2) | $273K | $290K | +6.3% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010500) | $265K | $303K | +14.3% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011100) | $253K | $285K | +12.8% | |
| Alvaton | $289K | $318K | +10.2% | |
| Woodburn | $241K | $260K | +7.8% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010701) | $311K | $331K | +6.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green · 42104 · (Tract 107.2) | $273K | $290K | +6.3% | |
| Greencastle | $212K | $245K | +15.3% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011002) | $215K | $248K | +15.0% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010500) | $265K | $303K | +14.3% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011100) | $253K | $285K | +12.8% | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010804) | $215K | $240K | +11.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green · 42104 · (Tract 107.2) | $273K | $290K | $215K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010900) | $229K | $233K | $107K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011200) | $145K | $157K | $85K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 011300) | $175K | $188K | $78K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010200) | $100K | $104K | $48K | |
| Bowling Green (Tract 010300) | $89K | $95K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
