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Nelson, KY · ZIP 40004 · Census Tract 21179930301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$294K
Downside (P10)
$259K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$318K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$406K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $150K | $153K | $154K | $173K | $175K | $191K | $196K | $240K | $259K | $286K | $294K | $303K | $311K | $318K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$144,091 | -$141,491 | -$139,691 | -$121,191 | -$119,191 | -$102,791 | -$97,691 | -$54,191 | -$35,291 | -$8,491 | +$9,115 | +$17,091 | +$23,686 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.0% | -48.1% | -47.5% | -41.2% | -40.5% | -35.0% | -33.2% | -18.4% | -12.0% | -2.9% | +3.1% | +5.8% | +8.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $274K | $267K | $259K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $343K | $363K | $406K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$274K to $343K
22.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$259K to $406K
46.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bardstown · 40004 · (Tract 9303.1) | $292K | $318K | +8.8% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930500) | $264K | $284K | +7.6% | |
| Coxs Creek (Tract 930202) | $320K | $343K | +7.1% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930305) | $235K | $248K | +5.5% | |
| New Haven | $224K | $234K | +4.4% | |
| Coxs Creek (Tract 930201) | $288K | $295K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bardstown · 40004 · (Tract 9303.1) | $292K | $318K | +8.8% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930400) | $217K | $246K | +13.5% | |
| Boston | $221K | $247K | +11.8% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930303) | $160K | $179K | +11.7% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930304) | $204K | $222K | +8.9% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930500) | $264K | $284K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bardstown · 40004 · (Tract 9303.1) | $292K | $318K | $147K | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930304) | $204K | $222K | $131K | |
| Bloomfield | $218K | $227K | $129K | |
| Boston | $221K | $247K | $128K | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930400) | $217K | $246K | $106K | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930303) | $160K | $179K | $94K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Nelson, KY · ZIP 40004 · Census Tract 21179930301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$294K
Downside (P10)
$259K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$318K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$406K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $150K | $153K | $154K | $173K | $175K | $191K | $196K | $240K | $259K | $286K | $294K | $303K | $311K | $318K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$144,091 | -$141,491 | -$139,691 | -$121,191 | -$119,191 | -$102,791 | -$97,691 | -$54,191 | -$35,291 | -$8,491 | +$9,115 | +$17,091 | +$23,686 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -49.0% | -48.1% | -47.5% | -41.2% | -40.5% | -35.0% | -33.2% | -18.4% | -12.0% | -2.9% | +3.1% | +5.8% | +8.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $274K | $267K | $259K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $343K | $363K | $406K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$274K to $343K
22.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$259K to $406K
46.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bardstown · 40004 · (Tract 9303.1) | $292K | $318K | +8.8% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930500) | $264K | $284K | +7.6% | |
| Coxs Creek (Tract 930202) | $320K | $343K | +7.1% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930305) | $235K | $248K | +5.5% | |
| New Haven | $224K | $234K | +4.4% | |
| Coxs Creek (Tract 930201) | $288K | $295K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bardstown · 40004 · (Tract 9303.1) | $292K | $318K | +8.8% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930400) | $217K | $246K | +13.5% | |
| Boston | $221K | $247K | +11.8% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930303) | $160K | $179K | +11.7% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930304) | $204K | $222K | +8.9% | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930500) | $264K | $284K | +7.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bardstown · 40004 · (Tract 9303.1) | $292K | $318K | $147K | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930304) | $204K | $222K | $131K | |
| Bloomfield | $218K | $227K | $129K | |
| Boston | $221K | $247K | $128K | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930400) | $217K | $246K | $106K | |
| Bardstown (Tract 930303) | $160K | $179K | $94K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
