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Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40214 · Census Tract 21111009106 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$175K
Downside (P10)
$143K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$187K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$257K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $121K | $125K | $122K | $123K | $137K | $138K | $138K | $163K | $170K | $169K | $175K | $179K | $189K | $187K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$53,958 | -$49,958 | -$53,358 | -$51,658 | -$37,658 | -$36,758 | -$36,958 | -$12,258 | -$4,858 | -$5,858 | +$4,435 | +$13,545 | +$12,296 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.8% | -28.6% | -30.5% | -29.5% | -21.5% | -21.0% | -21.1% | -7.0% | -2.8% | -3.3% | +2.5% | +7.7% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $156K | $153K | $143K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $210K | $229K | $257K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$156K to $210K
30.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$143K to $257K
61.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $174K | $187K | +7.9% | |
| Louisville (Tract 004400) | $179K | $202K | +12.9% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 011007) | $175K | $191K | +9.4% | |
| Louisville (Tract 006200) | $169K | $182K | +7.8% | |
| Louisville (Tract 004600) | $174K | $183K | +5.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 011405) | $174K | $183K | +5.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $174K | $187K | +7.9% | |
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $341K | $409K | +19.9% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008100) | $249K | $292K | +17.1% | |
| Louisville (Tract 006900) | $245K | $286K | +16.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $612K | $712K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $174K | $187K | $115K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002300) | $78K | $83K | $44K | |
| Louisville (Tract 000600) | $63K | $67K | $37K | |
| Louisville (Tract 001800) | $68K | $76K | $35K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002100) | $53K | $57K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40214 · Census Tract 21111009106 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$175K
Downside (P10)
$143K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$187K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$257K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $121K | $125K | $122K | $123K | $137K | $138K | $138K | $163K | $170K | $169K | $175K | $179K | $189K | $187K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$53,958 | -$49,958 | -$53,358 | -$51,658 | -$37,658 | -$36,758 | -$36,958 | -$12,258 | -$4,858 | -$5,858 | +$4,435 | +$13,545 | +$12,296 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.8% | -28.6% | -30.5% | -29.5% | -21.5% | -21.0% | -21.1% | -7.0% | -2.8% | -3.3% | +2.5% | +7.7% | +7.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $156K | $153K | $143K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $210K | $229K | $257K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$156K to $210K
30.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$143K to $257K
61.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $174K | $187K | +7.9% | |
| Louisville (Tract 004400) | $179K | $202K | +12.9% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 011007) | $175K | $191K | +9.4% | |
| Louisville (Tract 006200) | $169K | $182K | +7.8% | |
| Louisville (Tract 004600) | $174K | $183K | +5.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 011405) | $174K | $183K | +5.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $174K | $187K | +7.9% | |
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $341K | $409K | +19.9% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008100) | $249K | $292K | +17.1% | |
| Louisville (Tract 006900) | $245K | $286K | +16.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $612K | $712K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $174K | $187K | $115K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002300) | $78K | $83K | $44K | |
| Louisville (Tract 000600) | $63K | $67K | $37K | |
| Louisville (Tract 001800) | $68K | $76K | $35K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002100) | $53K | $57K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
