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Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40204 · Census Tract 21111006300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$239K
Downside (P10)
$203K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$248K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$337K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $115K | $115K | $124K | $129K | $142K | $162K | $178K | $204K | $231K | $232K | $239K | $242K | $252K | $248K | $243K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$123,737 | -$123,437 | -$114,537 | -$109,437 | -$96,337 | -$77,137 | -$61,037 | -$34,737 | -$8,037 | -$6,637 | +$2,914 | +$13,444 | +$9,197 | +$4,029 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.9% | -51.7% | -48.0% | -45.9% | -40.4% | -32.3% | -25.6% | -14.6% | -3.4% | -2.8% | +1.2% | +5.6% | +3.9% | +1.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $211K | $210K | $203K | $216K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $290K | $319K | $337K | $274K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$211K to $290K
33.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$216K to $274K
23.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | $236K | $248K | +4.9% | |
| Jeffersontown | $242K | $273K | +12.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $238K | $264K | +10.8% | |
| Southeast Jefferson (Tract 011115) | $240K | $262K | +8.9% | |
| Southeast Jefferson (Tract 011116) | $241K | $257K | +6.6% | |
| Southeast Jefferson (Tract 011003) | $236K | $245K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | $236K | $248K | +4.9% | |
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $341K | $409K | +19.9% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008100) | $249K | $292K | +17.1% | |
| Louisville (Tract 006900) | $245K | $286K | +16.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $612K | $712K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | $236K | $248K | $135K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002300) | $78K | $83K | $44K | |
| Louisville (Tract 000600) | $63K | $67K | $37K | |
| Louisville (Tract 001800) | $68K | $76K | $35K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002100) | $53K | $57K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40204 · Census Tract 21111006300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$239K
Downside (P10)
$203K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$248K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$337K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $115K | $115K | $124K | $129K | $142K | $162K | $178K | $204K | $231K | $232K | $239K | $242K | $252K | $248K | $243K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$123,737 | -$123,437 | -$114,537 | -$109,437 | -$96,337 | -$77,137 | -$61,037 | -$34,737 | -$8,037 | -$6,637 | +$2,914 | +$13,444 | +$9,197 | +$4,029 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.9% | -51.7% | -48.0% | -45.9% | -40.4% | -32.3% | -25.6% | -14.6% | -3.4% | -2.8% | +1.2% | +5.6% | +3.9% | +1.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $211K | $210K | $203K | $216K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $290K | $319K | $337K | $274K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$211K to $290K
33.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$216K to $274K
23.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | $236K | $248K | +4.9% | |
| Jeffersontown | $242K | $273K | +12.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $238K | $264K | +10.8% | |
| Southeast Jefferson (Tract 011115) | $240K | $262K | +8.9% | |
| Southeast Jefferson (Tract 011116) | $241K | $257K | +6.6% | |
| Southeast Jefferson (Tract 011003) | $236K | $245K | +3.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | $236K | $248K | +4.9% | |
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $341K | $409K | +19.9% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008100) | $249K | $292K | +17.1% | |
| Louisville (Tract 006900) | $245K | $286K | +16.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $612K | $712K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | $236K | $248K | $135K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002300) | $78K | $83K | $44K | |
| Louisville (Tract 000600) | $63K | $67K | $37K | |
| Louisville (Tract 001800) | $68K | $76K | $35K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002100) | $53K | $57K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
