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Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40207 · Census Tract 21111007501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$640K
Downside (P10)
$517K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$671K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.02M
+60% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +60%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $461K | $476K | $495K | $514K | $542K | $517K | $527K | $572K | $602K | $622K | $640K | $659K | $660K | $671K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$178,797 | -$163,797 | -$145,197 | -$125,697 | -$98,497 | -$122,697 | -$113,397 | -$67,697 | -$37,997 | -$18,197 | +$19,041 | +$20,049 | +$31,150 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.9% | -25.6% | -22.7% | -19.6% | -15.4% | -19.2% | -17.7% | -10.6% | -5.9% | -2.8% | +3.0% | +3.1% | +4.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $553K | $524K | $517K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $782K | $840K | $1.0M |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$553K to $782K
34.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$517K to $1.0M
75.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Jefferson · Louisville · (Tract 75.1) | $643K | $671K | +4.3% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 010322) | $612K | $712K | +16.4% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008202) | $601K | $682K | +13.4% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008700) | $625K | $708K | +13.2% | |
| East Jefferson | $619K | $675K | +9.1% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 010313) | $615K | $617K | +0.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Jefferson · Louisville · (Tract 75.1) | $643K | $671K | +4.3% | |
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $341K | $409K | +19.9% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008100) | $249K | $292K | +17.1% | |
| Louisville (Tract 006900) | $245K | $286K | +16.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $612K | $712K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Jefferson · Louisville · (Tract 75.1) | $643K | $671K | $504K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002300) | $78K | $83K | $44K | |
| Louisville (Tract 000600) | $63K | $67K | $37K | |
| Louisville (Tract 001800) | $68K | $76K | $35K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002100) | $53K | $57K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40207 · Census Tract 21111007501 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$640K
Downside (P10)
$517K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$671K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.02M
+60% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +60%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $461K | $476K | $495K | $514K | $542K | $517K | $527K | $572K | $602K | $622K | $640K | $659K | $660K | $671K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$178,797 | -$163,797 | -$145,197 | -$125,697 | -$98,497 | -$122,697 | -$113,397 | -$67,697 | -$37,997 | -$18,197 | +$19,041 | +$20,049 | +$31,150 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.9% | -25.6% | -22.7% | -19.6% | -15.4% | -19.2% | -17.7% | -10.6% | -5.9% | -2.8% | +3.0% | +3.1% | +4.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $553K | $524K | $517K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $782K | $840K | $1.0M |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$553K to $782K
34.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$517K to $1.0M
75.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Jefferson · Louisville · (Tract 75.1) | $643K | $671K | +4.3% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 010322) | $612K | $712K | +16.4% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008202) | $601K | $682K | +13.4% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008700) | $625K | $708K | +13.2% | |
| East Jefferson | $619K | $675K | +9.1% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 010313) | $615K | $617K | +0.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Jefferson · Louisville · (Tract 75.1) | $643K | $671K | +4.3% | |
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $341K | $409K | +19.9% | |
| Louisville (Tract 008100) | $249K | $292K | +17.1% | |
| Louisville (Tract 006900) | $245K | $286K | +16.6% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $612K | $712K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Jefferson · Louisville · (Tract 75.1) | $643K | $671K | $504K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002300) | $78K | $83K | $44K | |
| Louisville (Tract 000600) | $63K | $67K | $37K | |
| Louisville (Tract 001800) | $68K | $76K | $35K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002100) | $53K | $57K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
