Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
View parcel and neighborhood forecasts, compare markets, or build with the API.
Loading forecast data...
Garrard, KY · ZIP 40461 · Census Tract 21079970400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$155K
Downside (P10)
$124K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$170K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$215K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $91K | $102K | $109K | $124K | $124K | $122K | $130K | $144K | $142K | $146K | $155K | $161K | $168K | $170K | $152K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$64,311 | -$52,811 | -$45,611 | -$30,711 | -$31,311 | -$33,511 | -$24,911 | -$11,211 | -$13,211 | -$8,811 | +$6,467 | +$12,542 | +$14,766 | -$3,347 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.5% | -34.1% | -29.4% | -19.8% | -20.2% | -21.6% | -16.1% | -7.2% | -8.5% | -5.7% | +4.2% | +8.1% | +9.5% | -2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $132K | $129K | $124K | $136K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $190K | $206K | $215K | $171K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$132K to $190K
36.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$136K to $171K
22.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paint Lick | $152K | $170K | +12.0% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970202) | $212K | $246K | +15.9% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970300) | $178K | $204K | +14.4% | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970101) | $213K | $238K | +11.8% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970201) | $215K | $235K | +9.0% | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970102) | $266K | $275K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paint Lick | $152K | $170K | +12.0% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970202) | $212K | $246K | +15.9% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970300) | $178K | $204K | +14.4% | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970101) | $213K | $238K | +11.8% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970201) | $215K | $235K | +9.0% | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970102) | $266K | $275K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paint Lick | $152K | $170K | $90K | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970101) | $213K | $238K | $131K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970300) | $178K | $204K | $127K | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970102) | $266K | $275K | $121K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970202) | $212K | $246K | $119K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970201) | $215K | $235K | $99K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Garrard, KY · ZIP 40461 · Census Tract 21079970400 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$155K
Downside (P10)
$124K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$170K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$215K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $91K | $102K | $109K | $124K | $124K | $122K | $130K | $144K | $142K | $146K | $155K | $161K | $168K | $170K | $152K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$64,311 | -$52,811 | -$45,611 | -$30,711 | -$31,311 | -$33,511 | -$24,911 | -$11,211 | -$13,211 | -$8,811 | +$6,467 | +$12,542 | +$14,766 | -$3,347 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.5% | -34.1% | -29.4% | -19.8% | -20.2% | -21.6% | -16.1% | -7.2% | -8.5% | -5.7% | +4.2% | +8.1% | +9.5% | -2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $132K | $129K | $124K | $136K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $190K | $206K | $215K | $171K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$132K to $190K
36.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$136K to $171K
22.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paint Lick | $152K | $170K | +12.0% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970202) | $212K | $246K | +15.9% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970300) | $178K | $204K | +14.4% | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970101) | $213K | $238K | +11.8% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970201) | $215K | $235K | +9.0% | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970102) | $266K | $275K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paint Lick | $152K | $170K | +12.0% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970202) | $212K | $246K | +15.9% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970300) | $178K | $204K | +14.4% | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970101) | $213K | $238K | +11.8% | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970201) | $215K | $235K | +9.0% | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970102) | $266K | $275K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paint Lick | $152K | $170K | $90K | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970101) | $213K | $238K | $131K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970300) | $178K | $204K | $127K | |
| Bryantsville (Tract 970102) | $266K | $275K | $121K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970202) | $212K | $246K | $119K | |
| Lancaster (Tract 970201) | $215K | $235K | $99K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
