What is the home price forecast for Parcel 21079970202 in Lancaster · 40444 · (Tract 9702.2)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $216,406 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.7%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 21079970202 in Lancaster · 40444 · (Tract 9702.2)?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $216,406 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 13.7%.

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Parcel 21079970202 (Lancaster) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 21079970202, Lancaster · 40444 · (Tract 9702.2) Home Price Forecast

Garrard, KY · ZIP 40444 · Census Tract 21079970202 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$216K

Downside (P10)

$177K

-18% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$246K

+14% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$296K

+37% by 2030

Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$95K	$137K	$173K	$210K	$208K	$216K	$222K	$231K	$246K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$121,006	-$79,206	-$43,406	-$6,406	-$8,606		+$5,203	+$14,406	+$29,609
Growth % vs 2026	-55.9%	-36.6%	-20.1%	-3.0%	-4.0%		+2.4%	+6.7%	+13.7%
Downside (P10)							$184K	$177K	$177K
Upside (P90)							$271K	$291K	$296K

Forecast Confidence

73%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$184K to $271K

39.1% of median

Long-horizon band

$177K to $296K

48.5% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +13.7% · Spread: 49%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 21079970202, Lancaster · 40444 · (Tract 9702.2) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).