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Daviess, KY · ZIP 42301 · Census Tract 21059001701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$179K
Downside (P10)
$148K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$193K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$266K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $103K | $111K | $115K | $123K | $124K | $141K | $147K | $170K | $172K | $175K | $179K | $187K | $188K | $193K | $182K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$75,524 | -$67,124 | -$63,224 | -$55,724 | -$55,024 | -$37,924 | -$31,624 | -$8,824 | -$6,224 | -$3,324 | +$8,202 | +$9,077 | +$14,214 | +$3,661 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -42.3% | -37.6% | -35.4% | -31.2% | -30.8% | -21.2% | -17.7% | -4.9% | -3.5% | -1.9% | +4.6% | +5.1% | +8.0% | +2.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $157K | $154K | $148K | $161K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $224K | $247K | $266K | $205K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$157K to $224K
35.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$161K to $205K
24.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utica-Stanley · Owensboro · (Tract 17.1) | $176K | $193K | +9.2% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 001200) | $181K | $211K | +16.7% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000800) | $145K | $165K | +13.6% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000401) | $164K | $175K | +6.9% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 001000) | $143K | $151K | +5.4% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000900) | $193K | $202K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utica-Stanley · Owensboro · (Tract 17.1) | $176K | $193K | +9.2% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 001200) | $181K | $211K | +16.7% | |
| Utica-Stanley (Tract 001300) | $252K | $294K | +16.6% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000800) | $145K | $165K | +13.6% | |
| Utica-Stanley (Tract 001800) | $257K | $291K | +13.3% | |
| Utica-Stanley (Tract 001703) | $233K | $259K | +11.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utica-Stanley · Owensboro · (Tract 17.1) | $176K | $193K | $118K | |
| Whitesville-Philpot | $124K | $129K | $79K | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000402) | $113K | $117K | $61K | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000500) | $115K | $123K | $55K | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000100) | $106K | $116K | $53K | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000200) | $76K | $79K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Daviess, KY · ZIP 42301 · Census Tract 21059001701 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$179K
Downside (P10)
$148K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$193K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$266K
+49% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $103K | $111K | $115K | $123K | $124K | $141K | $147K | $170K | $172K | $175K | $179K | $187K | $188K | $193K | $182K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$75,524 | -$67,124 | -$63,224 | -$55,724 | -$55,024 | -$37,924 | -$31,624 | -$8,824 | -$6,224 | -$3,324 | +$8,202 | +$9,077 | +$14,214 | +$3,661 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -42.3% | -37.6% | -35.4% | -31.2% | -30.8% | -21.2% | -17.7% | -4.9% | -3.5% | -1.9% | +4.6% | +5.1% | +8.0% | +2.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $157K | $154K | $148K | $161K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $224K | $247K | $266K | $205K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$157K to $224K
35.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$161K to $205K
24.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utica-Stanley · Owensboro · (Tract 17.1) | $176K | $193K | +9.2% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 001200) | $181K | $211K | +16.7% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000800) | $145K | $165K | +13.6% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000401) | $164K | $175K | +6.9% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 001000) | $143K | $151K | +5.4% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000900) | $193K | $202K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utica-Stanley · Owensboro · (Tract 17.1) | $176K | $193K | +9.2% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 001200) | $181K | $211K | +16.7% | |
| Utica-Stanley (Tract 001300) | $252K | $294K | +16.6% | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000800) | $145K | $165K | +13.6% | |
| Utica-Stanley (Tract 001800) | $257K | $291K | +13.3% | |
| Utica-Stanley (Tract 001703) | $233K | $259K | +11.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utica-Stanley · Owensboro · (Tract 17.1) | $176K | $193K | $118K | |
| Whitesville-Philpot | $124K | $129K | $79K | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000402) | $113K | $117K | $61K | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000500) | $115K | $123K | $55K | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000100) | $106K | $116K | $53K | |
| Owensboro (Tract 000200) | $76K | $79K | $45K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
