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Ellis, KS · ZIP 67601 · Census Tract 20051072901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$175K
Downside (P10)
$142K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$181K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$256K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $133K | $138K | $158K | $168K | $171K | $175K | $176K | $178K | $181K | $180K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$42,461 | -$36,661 | -$16,861 | -$7,361 | -$4,161 | +$766 | +$2,485 | +$6,202 | +$4,926 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.3% | -20.9% | -9.6% | -4.2% | -2.4% | +0.4% | +1.4% | +3.5% | +2.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $145K | $139K | $142K | $156K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $202K | $218K | $256K | $202K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$145K to $202K
32.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$156K to $202K
25.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays · 67601 · (Tract 729.1) | $174K | $181K | +4.1% | |
| Big Creek | $231K | $255K | +10.1% | |
| Big Creek area | $168K | $184K | +9.5% | |
| Hays (Tract 072801) | $216K | $226K | +4.9% | |
| Catherine area | $204K | $212K | +3.9% | |
| Hays (Tract 072701) | $216K | $218K | +0.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays · 67601 · (Tract 729.1) | $174K | $181K | +4.1% | |
| Big Creek | $231K | $255K | +10.1% | |
| Big Creek area (Tract 073000) | $168K | $184K | +9.5% | |
| Big Creek area (Tract 072802) | $428K | $460K | +7.5% | |
| Hays | $216K | $226K | +4.9% | |
| Catherine area | $204K | $212K | +3.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays · 67601 · (Tract 729.1) | $174K | $181K | $114K | |
| Hays (Tract 072801) | $216K | $226K | $134K | |
| Hays (Tract 072701) | $216K | $218K | $115K | |
| Catherine area | $204K | $212K | $111K | |
| Big Creek area | $168K | $184K | $104K | |
| Big Creek | $231K | $255K | $98K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Ellis, KS · ZIP 67601 · Census Tract 20051072901 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$175K
Downside (P10)
$142K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$181K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$256K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $133K | $138K | $158K | $168K | $171K | $175K | $176K | $178K | $181K | $180K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$42,461 | -$36,661 | -$16,861 | -$7,361 | -$4,161 | +$766 | +$2,485 | +$6,202 | +$4,926 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.3% | -20.9% | -9.6% | -4.2% | -2.4% | +0.4% | +1.4% | +3.5% | +2.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $145K | $139K | $142K | $156K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $202K | $218K | $256K | $202K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$145K to $202K
32.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$156K to $202K
25.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays · 67601 · (Tract 729.1) | $174K | $181K | +4.1% | |
| Big Creek | $231K | $255K | +10.1% | |
| Big Creek area | $168K | $184K | +9.5% | |
| Hays (Tract 072801) | $216K | $226K | +4.9% | |
| Catherine area | $204K | $212K | +3.9% | |
| Hays (Tract 072701) | $216K | $218K | +0.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays · 67601 · (Tract 729.1) | $174K | $181K | +4.1% | |
| Big Creek | $231K | $255K | +10.1% | |
| Big Creek area (Tract 073000) | $168K | $184K | +9.5% | |
| Big Creek area (Tract 072802) | $428K | $460K | +7.5% | |
| Hays | $216K | $226K | +4.9% | |
| Catherine area | $204K | $212K | +3.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays · 67601 · (Tract 729.1) | $174K | $181K | $114K | |
| Hays (Tract 072801) | $216K | $226K | $134K | |
| Hays (Tract 072701) | $216K | $218K | $115K | |
| Catherine area | $204K | $212K | $111K | |
| Big Creek area | $168K | $184K | $104K | |
| Big Creek | $231K | $255K | $98K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
