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Douglas, KS · ZIP 66046 · Census Tract 20045001002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$203K
Downside (P10)
$166K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$212K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$283K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $154K | $152K | $153K | $155K | $161K | $165K | $165K | $194K | $197K | $199K | $203K | $209K | $216K | $212K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$49,295 | -$50,395 | -$49,695 | -$47,595 | -$41,695 | -$37,395 | -$37,695 | -$8,695 | -$5,695 | -$3,595 | +$6,572 | +$13,546 | +$9,204 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.3% | -24.9% | -24.5% | -23.5% | -20.6% | -18.4% | -18.6% | -4.3% | -2.8% | -1.8% | +3.2% | +6.7% | +4.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $174K | $171K | $166K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $253K | $267K | $283K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$174K to $253K
38.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$166K to $283K
54.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wakarusa | $200K | $212K | +6.0% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000201) | $214K | $245K | +14.6% | |
| Grant | $197K | $220K | +11.6% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000501) | $199K | $221K | +11.1% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000202) | $224K | $244K | +8.8% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 001001) | $231K | $248K | +7.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wakarusa | $200K | $212K | +6.0% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000704) | $278K | $326K | +17.0% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000301) | $309K | $360K | +16.5% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000801) | $241K | $277K | +14.8% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000201) | $214K | $245K | +14.6% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000502) | $396K | $454K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wakarusa | $200K | $212K | $116K | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000902) | $269K | $300K | $140K | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000801) | $241K | $277K | $139K | |
| Lecompton | $273K | $301K | $133K | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000201) | $214K | $245K | $130K | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000802) | $258K | $262K | $120K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Douglas, KS · ZIP 66046 · Census Tract 20045001002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$203K
Downside (P10)
$166K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$212K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$283K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $154K | $152K | $153K | $155K | $161K | $165K | $165K | $194K | $197K | $199K | $203K | $209K | $216K | $212K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$49,295 | -$50,395 | -$49,695 | -$47,595 | -$41,695 | -$37,395 | -$37,695 | -$8,695 | -$5,695 | -$3,595 | +$6,572 | +$13,546 | +$9,204 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -24.3% | -24.9% | -24.5% | -23.5% | -20.6% | -18.4% | -18.6% | -4.3% | -2.8% | -1.8% | +3.2% | +6.7% | +4.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $174K | $171K | $166K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $253K | $267K | $283K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$174K to $253K
38.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$166K to $283K
54.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wakarusa | $200K | $212K | +6.0% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000201) | $214K | $245K | +14.6% | |
| Grant | $197K | $220K | +11.6% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000501) | $199K | $221K | +11.1% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000202) | $224K | $244K | +8.8% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 001001) | $231K | $248K | +7.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wakarusa | $200K | $212K | +6.0% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000704) | $278K | $326K | +17.0% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000301) | $309K | $360K | +16.5% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000801) | $241K | $277K | +14.8% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000201) | $214K | $245K | +14.6% | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000502) | $396K | $454K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wakarusa | $200K | $212K | $116K | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000902) | $269K | $300K | $140K | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000801) | $241K | $277K | $139K | |
| Lecompton | $273K | $301K | $133K | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000201) | $214K | $245K | $130K | |
| Lawrence (Tract 000802) | $258K | $262K | $120K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
