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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Bear Lake, ID · Census Tract 16007360009 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$4.74M
Downside (P10)
$2.04M
-57% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$3.14M
-34% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$4.15M
-12% by 2030
Base case: -34% by 2030, with a forecast range from -57% to -12%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $4.7M | $4.6M | $3.9M | $3.3M | $3.1M |
| YoY Change | -3.5% | -15.1% | -14.0% | -5.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $3.2M | $2.4M | $2.0M | $2.0M | |
| Upside (P90) | $5.5M | $4.9M | $4.3M | $4.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$3.22M to $5.51M
50.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$2.04M to $4.15M
67.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 360009 | $4.74M | $3.14M | -33.7% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 680006) | $3.89M | $3.06M | -21.3% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 280008) | $4.14M | $3.24M | -21.8% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 920009) | $2.83M | $2.14M | -24.3% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 320007) | $2.20M | $1.52M | -31.0% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 960001) | $4.48M | $2.86M | -36.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 360009 | $4.74M | $3.14M | -33.7% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 680006) | $3.89M | $3.06M | -21.3% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 280008) | $4.14M | $3.24M | -21.8% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 000000) | $1.73M | $1.35M | -22.1% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 920009) | $2.83M | $2.14M | -24.3% | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 320007) | $2.20M | $1.52M | -31.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 360009 | $4.74M | $3.14M | $2.11M | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 960001) | $4.48M | $2.86M | $1.73M | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 920009) | $2.83M | $2.14M | $1.37M | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 000000) | $1.73M | $1.35M | $1.32M | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 680006) | $3.89M | $3.06M | $1.31M | |
| Bear Lake (Tract 320007) | $2.20M | $1.52M | $1.28M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources