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Story, IA · ZIP 50056 · Census Tract 19169010200 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$206K
Downside (P10)
$169K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$215K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$289K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $140K | $138K | $136K | $138K | $140K | $143K | $152K | $172K | $181K | $200K | $206K | $209K | $208K | $215K |
| YoY Change | -0.9% | -1.4% | +0.9% | +1.9% | +2.2% | +6.1% | +12.9% | +5.6% | +10.3% | +3.1% | +1.3% | -0.3% | +3.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $181K | $176K | $169K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $264K | $277K | $289K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$181K to $264K
39.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$169K to $289K
56.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins area | $203K | $215K | +5.7% | |
| Howard area | $220K | $235K | +7.2% | |
| Nevada | $200K | $211K | +5.5% | |
| Nevada area | $182K | $191K | +4.7% | |
| Ames | $226K | $234K | +3.6% | |
| Sherman area | $216K | $220K | +2.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins area | $203K | $215K | +5.7% | |
| Milford area | $296K | $357K | +21.0% | |
| Ames (Tract 001304) | $428K | $502K | +17.2% | |
| Washington | $338K | $389K | +15.1% | |
| Ames (Tract 000200) | $247K | $279K | +12.9% | |
| Ames (Tract 000600) | $296K | $334K | +12.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins area | $203K | $215K | $120K | |
| Ames (Tract 000700) | $327K | $355K | $139K | |
| Sherman area | $216K | $220K | $120K | |
| Nevada | $200K | $211K | $110K | |
| Nevada area | $182K | $191K | $80K | |
| Ames (Tract 001000) | $58K | $62K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.