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Polk, IA · ZIP 50313 · Census Tract 19153010500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$279K
Downside (P10)
$249K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$313K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$392K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $170K | $169K | $169K | $171K | $176K | $168K | $178K | $211K | $243K | $276K | $279K | $293K | $303K | $313K | $285K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$109,792 | -$109,892 | -$109,892 | -$108,292 | -$103,792 | -$111,492 | -$101,192 | -$68,492 | -$36,392 | -$3,792 | +$13,606 | +$23,461 | +$33,976 | +$6,158 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.3% | -39.3% | -39.3% | -38.8% | -37.2% | -39.9% | -36.2% | -24.5% | -13.0% | -1.4% | +4.9% | +8.4% | +12.2% | +2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $249K | $259K | $249K | $258K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $317K | $356K | $392K | $320K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$249K to $317K
23.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$258K to $320K
21.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saylor | $278K | $313K | +12.7% | |
| Urbandale (Tract 010410) | $279K | $317K | +13.6% | |
| Windsor Heights | $276K | $311K | +12.7% | |
| Urbandale (Tract 010406) | $283K | $318K | +12.5% | |
| Des Moines | $276K | $304K | +10.4% | |
| West Des Moines | $277K | $286K | +3.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saylor | $278K | $313K | +12.7% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005101) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saylor | $278K | $313K | $144K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Polk, IA · ZIP 50313 · Census Tract 19153010500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$279K
Downside (P10)
$249K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$313K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$392K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $170K | $169K | $169K | $171K | $176K | $168K | $178K | $211K | $243K | $276K | $279K | $293K | $303K | $313K | $285K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$109,792 | -$109,892 | -$109,892 | -$108,292 | -$103,792 | -$111,492 | -$101,192 | -$68,492 | -$36,392 | -$3,792 | +$13,606 | +$23,461 | +$33,976 | +$6,158 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.3% | -39.3% | -39.3% | -38.8% | -37.2% | -39.9% | -36.2% | -24.5% | -13.0% | -1.4% | +4.9% | +8.4% | +12.2% | +2.2% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $249K | $259K | $249K | $258K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $317K | $356K | $392K | $320K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$249K to $317K
23.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$258K to $320K
21.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saylor | $278K | $313K | +12.7% | |
| Urbandale (Tract 010410) | $279K | $317K | +13.6% | |
| Windsor Heights | $276K | $311K | +12.7% | |
| Urbandale (Tract 010406) | $283K | $318K | +12.5% | |
| Des Moines | $276K | $304K | +10.4% | |
| West Des Moines | $277K | $286K | +3.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saylor | $278K | $313K | +12.7% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005101) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saylor | $278K | $313K | $144K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
