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Polk, IA · ZIP 50161 · Census Tract 19153010101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$421K
Downside (P10)
$334K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$437K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$665K
+58% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +58%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $205K | $216K | $255K | $279K | $288K | $317K | $322K | $364K | $377K | $404K | $421K | $437K | $430K | $437K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$215,702 | -$204,902 | -$165,502 | -$141,702 | -$132,502 | -$104,102 | -$98,402 | -$57,002 | -$43,602 | -$16,502 | +$15,915 | +$9,439 | +$15,906 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.3% | -48.7% | -39.3% | -33.7% | -31.5% | -24.8% | -23.4% | -13.6% | -10.4% | -3.9% | +3.8% | +2.2% | +3.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $356K | $347K | $334K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $530K | $626K | $665K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$356K to $530K
39.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$334K to $665K
75.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elkhart area | $411K | $437K | +6.2% | |
| Crocker (Tract 010213) | $411K | $470K | +14.5% | |
| Des Moines | $421K | $480K | +14.0% | |
| Madison area | $409K | $439K | +7.4% | |
| Webster | $422K | $448K | +6.2% | |
| Crocker (Tract 010215) | $409K | $432K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elkhart area | $411K | $437K | +6.2% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005101) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elkhart area | $411K | $437K | $331K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Polk, IA · ZIP 50161 · Census Tract 19153010101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$421K
Downside (P10)
$334K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$437K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$665K
+58% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +58%. The model forecasts this with 58% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $205K | $216K | $255K | $279K | $288K | $317K | $322K | $364K | $377K | $404K | $421K | $437K | $430K | $437K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$215,702 | -$204,902 | -$165,502 | -$141,702 | -$132,502 | -$104,102 | -$98,402 | -$57,002 | -$43,602 | -$16,502 | +$15,915 | +$9,439 | +$15,906 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -51.3% | -48.7% | -39.3% | -33.7% | -31.5% | -24.8% | -23.4% | -13.6% | -10.4% | -3.9% | +3.8% | +2.2% | +3.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $356K | $347K | $334K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $530K | $626K | $665K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$356K to $530K
39.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$334K to $665K
75.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elkhart area | $411K | $437K | +6.2% | |
| Crocker (Tract 010213) | $411K | $470K | +14.5% | |
| Des Moines | $421K | $480K | +14.0% | |
| Madison area | $409K | $439K | +7.4% | |
| Webster | $422K | $448K | +6.2% | |
| Crocker (Tract 010215) | $409K | $432K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elkhart area | $411K | $437K | +6.2% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005101) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elkhart area | $411K | $437K | $331K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
