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Polk, IA · ZIP 50309 · Census Tract 19153005101 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$325K
Downside (P10)
$295K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$367K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$528K
+63% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +63%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $305K | $314K | $321K | $312K | $318K | $325K | $348K | $347K | $367K | $333K |
| YoY Change | +3.3% | +2.2% | -3.1% | +2.0% | +2.2% | +7.0% | -0.2% | +5.9% | -9.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $297K | $290K | $295K | $295K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $418K | $475K | $528K | $374K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$297K to $418K
34.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$295K to $374K
23.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines · 50309 · (Tract 51.1) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% | |
| Urbandale | $327K | $360K | +9.8% | |
| Jefferson | $319K | $343K | +7.5% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 011113) | $328K | $347K | +5.8% | |
| Ankeny | $317K | $333K | +5.1% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 011027) | $336K | $351K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines · 50309 · (Tract 51.1) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Delaware | $303K | $350K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines · 50309 · (Tract 51.1) | $318K | $367K | $233K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.