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Polk, IA · ZIP 50009 · Census Tract 19153010709 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$256K
Downside (P10)
$229K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$280K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$350K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $185K | $190K | $229K | $240K | $250K | $256K | $268K | $277K | $280K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$71,138 | -$66,838 | -$27,538 | -$16,338 | -$6,338 | +$11,188 | +$20,625 | +$23,913 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.7% | -26.1% | -10.7% | -6.4% | -2.5% | +4.4% | +8.0% | +9.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $234K | $225K | $229K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $309K | $322K | $350K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$234K to $309K
27.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$229K to $350K
43.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay · Altoona · (Tract 107.9) | $252K | $280K | +11.1% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004001) | $259K | $296K | +14.4% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 010805) | $254K | $280K | +10.0% | |
| Pleasant Hill | $251K | $275K | +9.5% | |
| Urbandale | $256K | $279K | +9.1% | |
| Ankeny | $252K | $261K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay · Altoona · (Tract 107.9) | $252K | $280K | +11.1% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005101) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay · Altoona · (Tract 107.9) | $252K | $280K | $120K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Polk, IA · ZIP 50009 · Census Tract 19153010709 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$256K
Downside (P10)
$229K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$280K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$350K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $185K | $190K | $229K | $240K | $250K | $256K | $268K | $277K | $280K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$71,138 | -$66,838 | -$27,538 | -$16,338 | -$6,338 | +$11,188 | +$20,625 | +$23,913 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -27.7% | -26.1% | -10.7% | -6.4% | -2.5% | +4.4% | +8.0% | +9.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $234K | $225K | $229K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $309K | $322K | $350K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$234K to $309K
27.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$229K to $350K
43.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay · Altoona · (Tract 107.9) | $252K | $280K | +11.1% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004001) | $259K | $296K | +14.4% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 010805) | $254K | $280K | +10.0% | |
| Pleasant Hill | $251K | $275K | +9.5% | |
| Urbandale | $256K | $279K | +9.1% | |
| Ankeny | $252K | $261K | +3.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay · Altoona · (Tract 107.9) | $252K | $280K | +11.1% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005101) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay · Altoona · (Tract 107.9) | $252K | $280K | $120K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
