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Dallas, IA · ZIP 50263 · Census Tract 19049050807 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$275K
Downside (P10)
$232K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$310K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$421K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $183K | $183K | $194K | $202K | $215K | $194K | $204K | $255K | $261K | $273K | $275K | $293K | $300K | $310K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$92,151 | -$92,051 | -$81,351 | -$73,451 | -$59,951 | -$81,151 | -$71,751 | -$20,351 | -$13,951 | -$2,551 | +$18,052 | +$25,123 | +$34,550 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.5% | -33.4% | -29.6% | -26.7% | -21.8% | -29.5% | -26.1% | -7.4% | -5.1% | -0.9% | +6.6% | +9.1% | +12.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $238K | $239K | $232K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $352K | $377K | $421K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$238K to $352K
38.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$232K to $421K
61.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waukee · 50263 · (Tract 508.7) | $270K | $310K | +14.6% | |
| West Des Moines | $284K | $324K | +14.2% | |
| Sugar Grove area | $262K | $294K | +12.4% | |
| Union area | $280K | $314K | +12.0% | |
| Lincoln area | $296K | $320K | +8.1% | |
| Waukee | $286K | $293K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waukee · 50263 · (Tract 508.7) | $270K | $310K | +14.6% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 050814) | $360K | $419K | +16.2% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 050813) | $284K | $324K | +14.2% | |
| Boone | $547K | $623K | +13.8% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 050815) | $352K | $397K | +12.8% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 050816) | $243K | $273K | +12.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waukee · 50263 · (Tract 508.7) | $270K | $310K | $190K | |
| Adel area | $344K | $365K | $153K | |
| Sugar Grove area | $262K | $294K | $140K | |
| West Des Moines | $243K | $273K | $108K | |
| Spring Valley (Tract 050400) | $113K | $115K | $71K | |
| Spring Valley (Tract 050300) | $135K | $152K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Dallas, IA · ZIP 50263 · Census Tract 19049050807 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$275K
Downside (P10)
$232K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$310K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$421K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $183K | $183K | $194K | $202K | $215K | $194K | $204K | $255K | $261K | $273K | $275K | $293K | $300K | $310K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$92,151 | -$92,051 | -$81,351 | -$73,451 | -$59,951 | -$81,151 | -$71,751 | -$20,351 | -$13,951 | -$2,551 | +$18,052 | +$25,123 | +$34,550 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -33.5% | -33.4% | -29.6% | -26.7% | -21.8% | -29.5% | -26.1% | -7.4% | -5.1% | -0.9% | +6.6% | +9.1% | +12.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $238K | $239K | $232K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $352K | $377K | $421K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$238K to $352K
38.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$232K to $421K
61.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waukee · 50263 · (Tract 508.7) | $270K | $310K | +14.6% | |
| West Des Moines | $284K | $324K | +14.2% | |
| Sugar Grove area | $262K | $294K | +12.4% | |
| Union area | $280K | $314K | +12.0% | |
| Lincoln area | $296K | $320K | +8.1% | |
| Waukee | $286K | $293K | +2.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waukee · 50263 · (Tract 508.7) | $270K | $310K | +14.6% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 050814) | $360K | $419K | +16.2% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 050813) | $284K | $324K | +14.2% | |
| Boone | $547K | $623K | +13.8% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 050815) | $352K | $397K | +12.8% | |
| West Des Moines (Tract 050816) | $243K | $273K | +12.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waukee · 50263 · (Tract 508.7) | $270K | $310K | $190K | |
| Adel area | $344K | $365K | $153K | |
| Sugar Grove area | $262K | $294K | $140K | |
| West Des Moines | $243K | $273K | $108K | |
| Spring Valley (Tract 050400) | $113K | $115K | $71K | |
| Spring Valley (Tract 050300) | $135K | $152K | $68K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
