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Black Hawk, IA · ZIP 50648 · Census Tract 19013002800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$263K
Downside (P10)
$240K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$310K
+18% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$375K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $167K | $170K | $180K | $185K | $183K | $193K | $195K | $213K | $224K | $255K | $263K | $276K | $290K | $310K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$96,171 | -$93,171 | -$83,971 | -$78,371 | -$80,971 | -$70,371 | -$68,971 | -$50,571 | -$39,171 | -$8,771 | +$12,490 | +$26,935 | +$47,021 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.5% | -35.4% | -31.9% | -29.7% | -30.7% | -26.7% | -26.2% | -19.2% | -14.9% | -3.3% | +4.7% | +10.2% | +17.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $233K | $236K | $240K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $332K | $368K | $375K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$233K to $332K
35.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$240K to $375K
43.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclay area | $262K | $310K | +18.4% | |
| Lincoln area | $262K | $295K | +12.4% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 003001) | $244K | $262K | +7.2% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001302) | $247K | $262K | +6.2% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002304) | $237K | $250K | +5.8% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002500) | $245K | $251K | +2.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclay area | $262K | $310K | +18.4% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002601) | $307K | $357K | +16.5% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002400) | $228K | $264K | +15.7% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001400) | $205K | $235K | +15.0% | |
| Cedar Falls area | $401K | $460K | +14.6% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001200) | $149K | $171K | +14.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclay area | $262K | $310K | $136K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001800) | $76K | $83K | $46K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000500) | $83K | $91K | $46K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000800) | $87K | $93K | $44K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000700) | $83K | $85K | $42K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001701) | $67K | $72K | $29K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Black Hawk, IA · ZIP 50648 · Census Tract 19013002800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$263K
Downside (P10)
$240K
-9% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$310K
+18% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$375K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +18% by 2030, with a forecast range from -9% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $167K | $170K | $180K | $185K | $183K | $193K | $195K | $213K | $224K | $255K | $263K | $276K | $290K | $310K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$96,171 | -$93,171 | -$83,971 | -$78,371 | -$80,971 | -$70,371 | -$68,971 | -$50,571 | -$39,171 | -$8,771 | +$12,490 | +$26,935 | +$47,021 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.5% | -35.4% | -31.9% | -29.7% | -30.7% | -26.7% | -26.2% | -19.2% | -14.9% | -3.3% | +4.7% | +10.2% | +17.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $233K | $236K | $240K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $332K | $368K | $375K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$233K to $332K
35.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$240K to $375K
43.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclay area | $262K | $310K | +18.4% | |
| Lincoln area | $262K | $295K | +12.4% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 003001) | $244K | $262K | +7.2% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001302) | $247K | $262K | +6.2% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002304) | $237K | $250K | +5.8% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002500) | $245K | $251K | +2.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclay area | $262K | $310K | +18.4% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002601) | $307K | $357K | +16.5% | |
| Cedar Falls (Tract 002400) | $228K | $264K | +15.7% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001400) | $205K | $235K | +15.0% | |
| Cedar Falls area | $401K | $460K | +14.6% | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001200) | $149K | $171K | +14.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclay area | $262K | $310K | $136K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001800) | $76K | $83K | $46K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000500) | $83K | $91K | $46K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000800) | $87K | $93K | $44K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 000700) | $83K | $85K | $42K | |
| Waterloo (Tract 001701) | $67K | $72K | $29K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
