What is the home price forecast for Parcel 15007040106 in Hanalei?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $1,456,238 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 10.8%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 15007040106 in Hanalei?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $1,456,238 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 10.8%.

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Parcel 15007040106 (Hanalei) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 15007040106, Hanalei Home Price Forecast

Kauai, HI · ZIP 96722 · Census Tract 15007040106 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$1.46M

Downside (P10)

$1.24M

-15% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$1.61M

+11% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$2.17M

+49% by 2030

Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$858K	$888K	$993K	$1.2M	$1.4M	$1.5M	$1.5M	$1.5M	$1.6M
Growth $ vs 2026	-$597,838	-$567,938	-$463,638	-$241,238	-$35,238		+$47,874	+$86,690	+$157,948
Growth % vs 2026	-41.1%	-39.0%	-31.8%	-16.6%	-2.4%		+3.3%	+6.0%	+10.8%
Downside (P10)							$1.3M	$1.3M	$1.2M
Upside (P90)							$1.9M	$2.1M	$2.2M

Forecast Confidence

68%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$1.3M to $1.9M

43.7% of median

Long-horizon band

$1.2M to $2.2M

57.9% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +10.8% · Spread: 58%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 15007040106, Hanalei on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).