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Honolulu, HI · ZIP 96792 · Census Tract 15003009609 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$707K
Downside (P10)
$589K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$753K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.10M
+56% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 62% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $529K | $567K | $660K | $685K | $701K | $707K | $716K | $748K | $753K | $738K |
| YoY Change | +7.2% | +16.4% | +3.8% | +2.4% | +0.7% | +1.3% | +4.5% | +0.7% | -2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $609K | $612K | $589K | $647K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $883K | $969K | $1.1M | $826K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$609K to $883K
38.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$647K to $826K
24.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waianae · 96792 · (Tract 96.9) | $713K | $753K | +5.6% | |
| East Honolulu | $709K | $752K | +6.0% | |
| Waipahu (Tract 008952) | $710K | $780K | +9.9% | |
| Urban Honolulu | $710K | $815K | +14.7% | |
| Ewa Gentry | $715K | $803K | +12.3% | |
| Waipahu (Tract 008935) | $717K | $803K | +12.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waianae · 96792 · (Tract 96.9) | $713K | $753K | +5.6% | |
| Waipahu | $379K | $464K | +22.4% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 002403) | $448K | $549K | +22.4% | |
| Koolauloa | $961K | $1.17M | +21.6% | |
| Koolaupoko | $776K | $939K | +21.1% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003412) | $496K | $598K | +20.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waianae · 96792 · (Tract 96.9) | $713K | $753K | $516K | |
| Nanakuli | $245K | $269K | $160K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 005900) | $425K | $440K | $176K | |
| Waianae | $314K | $337K | $190K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003605) | $337K | $378K | $193K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003408) | $400K | $437K | $204K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.