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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Honolulu, HI · ZIP 96814 · Census Tract 15003003501 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$445K
Downside (P10)
$346K
-22% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$475K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$650K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -22% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $299K | $304K | $338K | $363K | $382K | $376K | $373K | $377K | $393K | $434K | $445K | $458K | $465K | $475K |
| YoY Change | +1.6% | +11.4% | +7.2% | +5.3% | -1.6% | -0.7% | +1.1% | +4.1% | +10.6% | +2.6% | +2.7% | +1.6% | +2.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $360K | $362K | $346K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $545K | $614K | $650K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$360K to $545K
40.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$346K to $650K
64.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Honolulu | $443K | $475K | +7.1% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 002403) | $448K | $549K | +22.4% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 001804) | $447K | $519K | +16.1% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 002301) | $441K | $485K | +9.9% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003413) | $446K | $484K | +8.4% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 006814) | $444K | $478K | +7.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Honolulu | $443K | $475K | +7.1% | |
| Waipahu | $379K | $464K | +22.4% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 002403) | $448K | $549K | +22.4% | |
| Koolauloa | $961K | $1.17M | +21.6% | |
| Koolaupoko | $776K | $939K | +21.1% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003412) | $496K | $598K | +20.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urban Honolulu | $443K | $475K | $304K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003408) | $400K | $437K | $204K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003605) | $337K | $378K | $193K | |
| Waianae | $314K | $337K | $190K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 005900) | $425K | $440K | $176K | |
| Nanakuli | $245K | $269K | $160K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.