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Honolulu, HI · ZIP 96706 · Census Tract 15003008416 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$636K
Downside (P10)
$506K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$633K
-1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$877K
+38% by 2030
Base case: -1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $531K | $530K | $533K | $567K | $600K | $636K | $638K | $635K | $633K |
| YoY Change | -0.2% | +0.7% | +6.2% | +6.0% | +5.9% | +0.3% | -0.5% | -0.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $551K | $538K | $506K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $767K | $808K | $877K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$551K to $767K
33.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$506K to $877K
58.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ewa Gentry · Ewa Beach · (Tract 84.16) | $616K | $633K | +2.7% | |
| Waianae | $636K | $733K | +15.3% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 004202) | $646K | $728K | +12.7% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 002205) | $649K | $713K | +9.9% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 002203) | $645K | $686K | +6.4% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 001905) | $634K | $649K | +2.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ewa Gentry · Ewa Beach · (Tract 84.16) | $616K | $633K | +2.7% | |
| Waipahu | $379K | $464K | +22.4% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 002403) | $448K | $549K | +22.4% | |
| Koolauloa | $961K | $1.17M | +21.6% | |
| Koolaupoko | $776K | $939K | +21.1% | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003412) | $496K | $598K | +20.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ewa Gentry · Ewa Beach · (Tract 84.16) | $616K | $633K | $371K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003408) | $400K | $437K | $204K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 003605) | $337K | $378K | $193K | |
| Waianae | $314K | $337K | $190K | |
| Urban Honolulu (Tract 005900) | $425K | $440K | $176K | |
| Nanakuli | $245K | $269K | $160K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.