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St. Johns, FL · ZIP 32086 · Census Tract 12109021301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$423K
Downside (P10)
$340K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$469K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$646K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $172K | $218K | $237K | $250K | $254K | $263K | $275K | $329K | $375K | $422K | $423K | $437K | $443K | $469K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$251,364 | -$205,864 | -$186,264 | -$173,264 | -$169,764 | -$160,764 | -$148,464 | -$94,264 | -$48,064 | -$964 | +$13,972 | +$19,441 | +$45,328 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -59.4% | -48.6% | -44.0% | -40.9% | -40.1% | -38.0% | -35.1% | -22.3% | -11.4% | -0.2% | +3.3% | +4.6% | +10.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $350K | $352K | $340K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $539K | $553K | $646K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$350K to $539K
43.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$340K to $646K
65.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Augustine · Saint Augustine · (Tract 213.1) | $426K | $469K | +10.1% | |
| St. Augustine | $457K | $502K | +9.8% | |
| Palm Valley | $419K | $458K | +9.4% | |
| Matanzas (Tract 021207) | $455K | $494K | +8.6% | |
| Matanzas (Tract 021211) | $385K | $413K | +7.2% | |
| Fruit Cove | $432K | $458K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Augustine · Saint Augustine · (Tract 213.1) | $426K | $469K | +10.1% | |
| Matanzas | $621K | $735K | +18.3% | |
| Palm Valley | $557K | $655K | +17.6% | |
| Fruit Cove | $586K | $683K | +16.7% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020606) | $546K | $637K | +16.6% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 021410) | $754K | $878K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Augustine · Saint Augustine · (Tract 213.1) | $426K | $469K | $305K | |
| Hastings (Tract 021102) | $338K | $359K | $166K | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020300) | $295K | $319K | $164K | |
| Hastings (Tract 021101) | $243K | $277K | $144K | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 021002) | $232K | $251K | $142K | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 021003) | $220K | $228K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
St. Johns, FL · ZIP 32086 · Census Tract 12109021301 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$423K
Downside (P10)
$340K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$469K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$646K
+53% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +53%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $172K | $218K | $237K | $250K | $254K | $263K | $275K | $329K | $375K | $422K | $423K | $437K | $443K | $469K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$251,364 | -$205,864 | -$186,264 | -$173,264 | -$169,764 | -$160,764 | -$148,464 | -$94,264 | -$48,064 | -$964 | +$13,972 | +$19,441 | +$45,328 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -59.4% | -48.6% | -44.0% | -40.9% | -40.1% | -38.0% | -35.1% | -22.3% | -11.4% | -0.2% | +3.3% | +4.6% | +10.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $350K | $352K | $340K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $539K | $553K | $646K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$350K to $539K
43.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$340K to $646K
65.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Augustine · Saint Augustine · (Tract 213.1) | $426K | $469K | +10.1% | |
| St. Augustine | $457K | $502K | +9.8% | |
| Palm Valley | $419K | $458K | +9.4% | |
| Matanzas (Tract 021207) | $455K | $494K | +8.6% | |
| Matanzas (Tract 021211) | $385K | $413K | +7.2% | |
| Fruit Cove | $432K | $458K | +6.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Augustine · Saint Augustine · (Tract 213.1) | $426K | $469K | +10.1% | |
| Matanzas | $621K | $735K | +18.3% | |
| Palm Valley | $557K | $655K | +17.6% | |
| Fruit Cove | $586K | $683K | +16.7% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020606) | $546K | $637K | +16.6% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 021410) | $754K | $878K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Augustine · Saint Augustine · (Tract 213.1) | $426K | $469K | $305K | |
| Hastings (Tract 021102) | $338K | $359K | $166K | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020300) | $295K | $319K | $164K | |
| Hastings (Tract 021101) | $243K | $277K | $144K | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 021002) | $232K | $251K | $142K | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 021003) | $220K | $228K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
