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St. Johns, FL · ZIP 32086 · Census Tract 12109021207 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$463K
Downside (P10)
$384K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$494K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$626K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $284K | $299K | $361K | $424K | $444K | $463K | $475K | $485K | $494K |
| YoY Change | +5.3% | +21.0% | +17.4% | +4.5% | +4.4% | +2.5% | +2.0% | +1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $396K | $392K | $384K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $569K | $585K | $626K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$396K to $569K
36.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$384K to $626K
49.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matanzas · Saint Augustine · (Tract 212.7) | $455K | $494K | +8.6% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020904) | $457K | $502K | +9.8% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020906) | $476K | $518K | +8.9% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020905) | $469K | $496K | +5.8% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020200) | $462K | $488K | +5.7% | |
| Fruit Cove | $473K | $500K | +5.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matanzas · Saint Augustine · (Tract 212.7) | $455K | $494K | +8.6% | |
| Matanzas | $621K | $735K | +18.3% | |
| Palm Valley | $557K | $655K | +17.6% | |
| Fruit Cove | $586K | $683K | +16.7% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020606) | $546K | $637K | +16.6% | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 021410) | $754K | $878K | +16.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matanzas · Saint Augustine · (Tract 212.7) | $455K | $494K | $242K | |
| Hastings (Tract 021102) | $338K | $359K | $166K | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 020300) | $295K | $319K | $164K | |
| Hastings (Tract 021101) | $243K | $277K | $144K | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 021002) | $232K | $251K | $142K | |
| St. Augustine (Tract 021003) | $220K | $228K | $103K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.