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Sarasota, FL · ZIP 34239 · Census Tract 12115001602 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$318K
Downside (P10)
$284K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$337K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$409K
+29% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +29%. The model forecasts this with 80% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $156K | $169K | $180K | $200K | $220K | $224K | $227K | $256K | $291K | $317K | $318K | $323K | $330K | $337K |
| YoY Change | +8.1% | +6.3% | +11.2% | +10.2% | +2.0% | +1.2% | +12.7% | +13.5% | +9.2% | +0.3% | +1.6% | +2.2% | +2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $288K | $282K | $284K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $374K | $394K | $409K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$288K to $374K
26.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$284K to $409K
37.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota | $323K | $337K | +4.2% | |
| North Port (Tract 002736) | $327K | $376K | +15.0% | |
| Venice (Tract 002404) | $305K | $350K | +14.7% | |
| Venice (Tract 002505) | $326K | $372K | +14.4% | |
| Sarasota | $309K | $350K | +13.3% | |
| North Port (Tract 002746) | $331K | $373K | +12.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota | $323K | $337K | +4.2% | |
| North Port | $221K | $268K | +21.0% | |
| Venice (Tract 002302) | $210K | $249K | +18.7% | |
| Venice Gardens | $357K | $421K | +17.9% | |
| Sarasota | $416K | $491K | +17.8% | |
| Venice (Tract 002734) | $529K | $622K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota | $323K | $337K | $125K | |
| Venice (Tract 002305) | $247K | $265K | $123K | |
| Sarasota | $195K | $211K | $110K | |
| Venice (Tract 002729) | $171K | $183K | $105K | |
| Warm Mineral Springs | $197K | $219K | $102K | |
| North Port | $158K | $181K | $101K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.