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Sarasota, FL · ZIP 34232 · Census Tract 12115001504 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$342K
Downside (P10)
$305K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$363K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$461K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $132K | $140K | $162K | $180K | $181K | $200K | $213K | $232K | $282K | $328K | $342K | $348K | $366K | $363K |
| YoY Change | +6.5% | +15.8% | +10.6% | +0.7% | +10.7% | +6.4% | +8.7% | +21.5% | +16.6% | +4.3% | +1.7% | +5.0% | -0.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $293K | $297K | $305K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $419K | $442K | $461K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$293K to $419K
36.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$305K to $461K
42.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota Springs | $333K | $363K | +8.8% | |
| North Port (Tract 002737) | $343K | $370K | +8.0% | |
| Sarasota | $343K | $384K | +12.0% | |
| North Port (Tract 002741) | $344K | $367K | +6.7% | |
| Sarasota Springs | $344K | $362K | +5.2% | |
| South Venice | $345K | $377K | +9.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota Springs | $333K | $363K | +8.8% | |
| North Port | $221K | $268K | +21.0% | |
| Venice (Tract 002302) | $210K | $249K | +18.7% | |
| Venice Gardens | $357K | $421K | +17.9% | |
| Sarasota | $416K | $491K | +17.8% | |
| Venice (Tract 002734) | $529K | $622K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota Springs | $333K | $363K | $156K | |
| North Port | $158K | $181K | $101K | |
| Warm Mineral Springs | $197K | $219K | $102K | |
| Venice (Tract 002729) | $171K | $183K | $105K | |
| Sarasota | $195K | $211K | $110K | |
| Venice (Tract 002305) | $247K | $265K | $123K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.