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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Sarasota, FL · ZIP 34232 · Census Tract 12115001304 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$401K
Downside (P10)
$320K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$425K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$581K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $181K | $208K | $229K | $238K | $257K | $277K | $300K | $328K | $349K | $386K | $401K | $417K | $420K | $425K |
| YoY Change | +15.1% | +9.8% | +3.9% | +8.1% | +7.7% | +8.4% | +9.2% | +6.7% | +10.4% | +4.0% | +3.9% | +0.7% | +1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $343K | $348K | $320K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $502K | $523K | $581K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$343K to $502K
38.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$320K to $581K
61.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota | $399K | $425K | +6.6% | |
| Sarasota (Tract 000502) | $406K | $456K | +12.5% | |
| Sarasota (Tract 001301) | $396K | $444K | +12.1% | |
| Sarasota (Tract 001510) | $403K | $447K | +11.0% | |
| Sarasota (Tract 001805) | $396K | $428K | +8.2% | |
| Sarasota (Tract 002007) | $400K | $431K | +7.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota | $399K | $425K | +6.6% | |
| North Port | $221K | $268K | +21.0% | |
| Venice (Tract 002302) | $210K | $249K | +18.7% | |
| Venice Gardens | $357K | $421K | +17.9% | |
| Sarasota | $416K | $491K | +17.8% | |
| Venice (Tract 002734) | $529K | $622K | +17.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarasota | $399K | $425K | $262K | |
| Venice (Tract 002305) | $247K | $265K | $123K | |
| Sarasota | $195K | $211K | $110K | |
| Venice (Tract 002729) | $171K | $183K | $105K | |
| Warm Mineral Springs | $197K | $219K | $102K | |
| North Port | $158K | $181K | $101K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.