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Polk, FL · ZIP 33823 · Census Tract 12105013001 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$344K
Downside (P10)
$304K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$363K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$468K
+36% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +36%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $158K | $164K | $178K | $196K | $208K | $211K | $209K | $255K | $293K | $333K | $344K | $346K | $357K | $363K |
| YoY Change | +4.2% | +8.1% | +10.3% | +6.3% | +1.3% | -1.1% | +22.0% | +15.2% | +13.5% | +3.3% | +0.5% | +3.2% | +1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $291K | $304K | $304K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $382K | $420K | $468K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$291K to $382K
26.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$304K to $468K
45.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburndale | $339K | $363K | +7.1% | |
| Haines City | $342K | $391K | +14.6% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011834) | $344K | $375K | +9.2% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 012130) | $338K | $358K | +5.9% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 012127) | $346K | $363K | +4.7% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011836) | $343K | $331K | -3.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburndale | $339K | $363K | +7.1% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012502) | $362K | $436K | +20.4% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 013801) | $193K | $231K | +19.7% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 014006) | $354K | $423K | +19.5% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012515) | $333K | $397K | +19.1% | |
| Bartow | $207K | $245K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburndale | $339K | $363K | $164K | |
| Frostproof | $80K | $87K | $40K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011400) | $97K | $101K | $39K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011000) | $51K | $57K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.