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Polk, FL · ZIP 33850 · Census Tract 12105012900 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$230K
Downside (P10)
$194K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$237K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$351K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $89K | $88K | $96K | $101K | $120K | $117K | $165K | $189K | $218K | $230K | $230K | $234K | $233K | $237K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$141,608 | -$142,108 | -$134,508 | -$129,008 | -$110,608 | -$113,408 | -$65,808 | -$41,808 | -$12,508 | -$308 | +$3,534 | +$2,852 | +$6,920 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -61.5% | -61.7% | -58.4% | -56.0% | -48.0% | -49.2% | -28.6% | -18.2% | -5.4% | -0.1% | +1.5% | +1.2% | +3.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $201K | $199K | $194K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $264K | $297K | $351K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$201K to $264K
27.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$194K to $351K
66.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Alfred | $227K | $237K | +4.3% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 014600) | $231K | $262K | +13.4% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 012306) | $229K | $260K | +13.3% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 013802) | $231K | $254K | +10.0% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 010800) | $232K | $245K | +5.6% | |
| Winter Haven | $231K | $235K | +1.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Alfred | $227K | $237K | +4.3% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012502) | $362K | $436K | +20.4% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 013801) | $193K | $231K | +19.7% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 014006) | $354K | $423K | +19.5% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012515) | $333K | $397K | +19.1% | |
| Bartow | $207K | $245K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Alfred | $227K | $237K | $157K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011722) | $93K | $98K | $50K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011400) | $97K | $101K | $39K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011000) | $51K | $57K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Polk, FL · ZIP 33850 · Census Tract 12105012900 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$230K
Downside (P10)
$194K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$237K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$351K
+52% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +52%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $89K | $88K | $96K | $101K | $120K | $117K | $165K | $189K | $218K | $230K | $230K | $234K | $233K | $237K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$141,608 | -$142,108 | -$134,508 | -$129,008 | -$110,608 | -$113,408 | -$65,808 | -$41,808 | -$12,508 | -$308 | +$3,534 | +$2,852 | +$6,920 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -61.5% | -61.7% | -58.4% | -56.0% | -48.0% | -49.2% | -28.6% | -18.2% | -5.4% | -0.1% | +1.5% | +1.2% | +3.0% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $201K | $199K | $194K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $264K | $297K | $351K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$201K to $264K
27.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$194K to $351K
66.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Alfred | $227K | $237K | +4.3% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 014600) | $231K | $262K | +13.4% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 012306) | $229K | $260K | +13.3% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 013802) | $231K | $254K | +10.0% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 010800) | $232K | $245K | +5.6% | |
| Winter Haven | $231K | $235K | +1.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Alfred | $227K | $237K | +4.3% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012502) | $362K | $436K | +20.4% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 013801) | $193K | $231K | +19.7% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 014006) | $354K | $423K | +19.5% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012515) | $333K | $397K | +19.1% | |
| Bartow | $207K | $245K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Alfred | $227K | $237K | $157K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011722) | $93K | $98K | $50K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011400) | $97K | $101K | $39K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011000) | $51K | $57K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
