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Polk, FL · ZIP 33838 · Census Tract 12105014131 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$207K
Downside (P10)
$176K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$216K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$272K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $126K | $152K | $161K | $179K | $203K | $207K | $210K | $216K | $216K | $212K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$80,838 | -$55,138 | -$46,138 | -$27,938 | -$3,538 | +$2,666 | +$9,141 | +$8,998 | +$5,298 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.1% | -26.6% | -22.3% | -13.5% | -1.7% | +1.3% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +2.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $180K | $171K | $176K | $186K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $246K | $262K | $272K | $240K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$180K to $246K
31.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$186K to $240K
25.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | $207K | $216K | +4.2% | |
| Bartow | $207K | $245K | +18.1% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011731) | $207K | $237K | +14.3% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 013002) | $207K | $228K | +10.2% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011732) | $204K | $219K | +7.0% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 014704) | $207K | $212K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | $207K | $216K | +4.2% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012502) | $362K | $436K | +20.4% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 013801) | $193K | $231K | +19.7% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 014006) | $354K | $423K | +19.5% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012515) | $333K | $397K | +19.1% | |
| Bartow | $207K | $245K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | $207K | $216K | $96K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011722) | $93K | $98K | $50K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011400) | $97K | $101K | $39K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011000) | $51K | $57K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Polk, FL · ZIP 33838 · Census Tract 12105014131 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$207K
Downside (P10)
$176K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$216K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$272K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $126K | $152K | $161K | $179K | $203K | $207K | $210K | $216K | $216K | $212K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$80,838 | -$55,138 | -$46,138 | -$27,938 | -$3,538 | +$2,666 | +$9,141 | +$8,998 | +$5,298 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.1% | -26.6% | -22.3% | -13.5% | -1.7% | +1.3% | +4.4% | +4.3% | +2.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $180K | $171K | $176K | $186K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $246K | $262K | $272K | $240K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$180K to $246K
31.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$186K to $240K
25.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | $207K | $216K | +4.2% | |
| Bartow | $207K | $245K | +18.1% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011731) | $207K | $237K | +14.3% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 013002) | $207K | $228K | +10.2% | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011732) | $204K | $219K | +7.0% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 014704) | $207K | $212K | +2.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | $207K | $216K | +4.2% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012502) | $362K | $436K | +20.4% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 013801) | $193K | $231K | +19.7% | |
| Winter Haven-Auburndale (Tract 014006) | $354K | $423K | +19.5% | |
| Haines City (Tract 012515) | $333K | $397K | +19.1% | |
| Bartow | $207K | $245K | +18.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dundee | $207K | $216K | $96K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011722) | $93K | $98K | $50K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011400) | $97K | $101K | $39K | |
| Lakeland (Tract 011000) | $51K | $57K | $32K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
