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Pinellas, FL · ZIP 33774 · Census Tract 12103025119 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$458K
Downside (P10)
$361K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$471K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$645K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $204K | $218K | $234K | $259K | $276K | $300K | $340K | $392K | $428K | $453K | $458K | $457K | $469K | $471K | $473K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$253,907 | -$239,707 | -$224,107 | -$198,407 | -$182,107 | -$157,807 | -$117,907 | -$65,707 | -$29,607 | -$5,107 | -$875 | +$11,499 | +$12,819 | +$15,493 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.5% | -52.4% | -49.0% | -43.3% | -39.8% | -34.5% | -25.8% | -14.4% | -6.5% | -1.1% | -0.2% | +2.5% | +2.8% | +3.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $416K | $388K | $361K | $415K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $553K | $578K | $645K | $536K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$416K to $553K
30.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$415K to $536K
25.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Ciega | $461K | $471K | +2.0% | |
| Boca Ciega (Tract 025122) | $451K | $492K | +9.0% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 022402) | $458K | $493K | +7.7% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 020209) | $451K | $479K | +6.2% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023200) | $461K | $474K | +2.9% | |
| Boca Ciega (Tract 025121) | $451K | $433K | -4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Ciega | $461K | $471K | +2.0% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 024409) | $636K | $762K | +19.8% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023601) | $549K | $650K | +18.3% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023900) | $475K | $555K | +16.9% | |
| Clearwater | $343K | $400K | +16.6% | |
| Boca Ciega | $473K | $547K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Ciega | $461K | $471K | $284K | |
| Pinellas Park | $97K | $101K | $60K | |
| Lealman | $67K | $71K | $50K | |
| Clearwater | $64K | $69K | $45K | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 024519) | $59K | $64K | $31K | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 025019) | $52K | $56K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pinellas, FL · ZIP 33774 · Census Tract 12103025119 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$458K
Downside (P10)
$361K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$471K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$645K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $204K | $218K | $234K | $259K | $276K | $300K | $340K | $392K | $428K | $453K | $458K | $457K | $469K | $471K | $473K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$253,907 | -$239,707 | -$224,107 | -$198,407 | -$182,107 | -$157,807 | -$117,907 | -$65,707 | -$29,607 | -$5,107 | -$875 | +$11,499 | +$12,819 | +$15,493 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.5% | -52.4% | -49.0% | -43.3% | -39.8% | -34.5% | -25.8% | -14.4% | -6.5% | -1.1% | -0.2% | +2.5% | +2.8% | +3.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $416K | $388K | $361K | $415K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $553K | $578K | $645K | $536K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$416K to $553K
30.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$415K to $536K
25.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Ciega | $461K | $471K | +2.0% | |
| Boca Ciega (Tract 025122) | $451K | $492K | +9.0% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 022402) | $458K | $493K | +7.7% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 020209) | $451K | $479K | +6.2% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023200) | $461K | $474K | +2.9% | |
| Boca Ciega (Tract 025121) | $451K | $433K | -4.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Ciega | $461K | $471K | +2.0% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 024409) | $636K | $762K | +19.8% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023601) | $549K | $650K | +18.3% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023900) | $475K | $555K | +16.9% | |
| Clearwater | $343K | $400K | +16.6% | |
| Boca Ciega | $473K | $547K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Ciega | $461K | $471K | $284K | |
| Pinellas Park | $97K | $101K | $60K | |
| Lealman | $67K | $71K | $50K | |
| Clearwater | $64K | $69K | $45K | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 024519) | $59K | $64K | $31K | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 025019) | $52K | $56K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
