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Pinellas, FL · ZIP 33786 · Census Tract 12103027605 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.12M
Downside (P10)
$902K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.27M
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.65M
+48% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $580K | $569K | $559K | $591K | $612K | $709K | $769K | $987K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.1M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$537,491 | -$547,691 | -$558,091 | -$525,691 | -$504,591 | -$407,591 | -$347,991 | -$129,991 | -$94,291 | -$63,991 | +$46,895 | +$87,912 | +$152,860 | -$20,178 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.1% | -49.0% | -50.0% | -47.1% | -45.2% | -36.5% | -31.2% | -11.6% | -8.4% | -5.7% | +4.2% | +7.9% | +13.7% | -1.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $903K | $872K | $902K | $967K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$903K to $1.3M
35.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$967K to $1.2M
23.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023700) | $1.07M | $1.20M | +12.4% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023602) | $841K | $942K | +12.1% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023800) | $737K | $812K | +10.1% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 021501) | $1.12M | $1.21M | +8.2% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 020106) | $852K | $893K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Petersburg (Tract 024409) | $636K | $762K | +19.8% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023601) | $549K | $650K | +18.3% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023900) | $475K | $555K | +16.9% | |
| Clearwater | $343K | $400K | +16.6% | |
| Boca Ciega | $473K | $547K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinellas Park | $97K | $101K | $60K | |
| Lealman | $67K | $71K | $50K | |
| Clearwater | $64K | $69K | $45K | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 024519) | $59K | $64K | $31K | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 025019) | $52K | $56K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Pinellas, FL · ZIP 33786 · Census Tract 12103027605 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.12M
Downside (P10)
$902K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.27M
+14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.65M
+48% by 2030
Base case: +14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $580K | $569K | $559K | $591K | $612K | $709K | $769K | $987K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.1M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$537,491 | -$547,691 | -$558,091 | -$525,691 | -$504,591 | -$407,591 | -$347,991 | -$129,991 | -$94,291 | -$63,991 | +$46,895 | +$87,912 | +$152,860 | -$20,178 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.1% | -49.0% | -50.0% | -47.1% | -45.2% | -36.5% | -31.2% | -11.6% | -8.4% | -5.7% | +4.2% | +7.9% | +13.7% | -1.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $903K | $872K | $902K | $967K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$903K to $1.3M
35.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$967K to $1.2M
23.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023700) | $1.07M | $1.20M | +12.4% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023602) | $841K | $942K | +12.1% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023800) | $737K | $812K | +10.1% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 021501) | $1.12M | $1.21M | +8.2% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 020106) | $852K | $893K | +4.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Petersburg (Tract 024409) | $636K | $762K | +19.8% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023601) | $549K | $650K | +18.3% | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 023900) | $475K | $555K | +16.9% | |
| Clearwater | $343K | $400K | +16.6% | |
| Boca Ciega | $473K | $547K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinellas Park | $97K | $101K | $60K | |
| Lealman | $67K | $71K | $50K | |
| Clearwater | $64K | $69K | $45K | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 024519) | $59K | $64K | $31K | |
| St. Petersburg (Tract 025019) | $52K | $56K | $30K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
