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Okaloosa, FL · ZIP 32578 · Census Tract 12091021002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$377K
Downside (P10)
$299K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$413K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$500K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $228K | $247K | $274K | $293K | $302K | $286K | $286K | $338K | $364K | $372K | $377K | $393K | $397K | $413K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$149,547 | -$130,147 | -$102,947 | -$84,747 | -$75,747 | -$91,147 | -$91,147 | -$39,847 | -$13,447 | -$5,547 | +$15,544 | +$19,263 | +$35,342 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -34.5% | -27.3% | -22.5% | -20.1% | -24.2% | -24.2% | -10.6% | -3.6% | -1.5% | +4.1% | +5.1% | +9.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $308K | $307K | $299K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $441K | $464K | $500K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$308K to $441K
33.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$299K to $500K
48.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niceville-Valparaiso | $374K | $413K | +10.3% | |
| Niceville-Valparaiso | $377K | $419K | +10.9% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022300) | $375K | $415K | +10.9% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022002) | $387K | $420K | +8.6% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022400) | $367K | $387K | +5.3% | |
| Destin | $361K | $378K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niceville-Valparaiso | $374K | $413K | +10.3% | |
| Crestview (Tract 020304) | $320K | $364K | +13.8% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 021700) | $447K | $507K | +13.5% | |
| Crestview (Tract 020305) | $318K | $360K | +13.3% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022900) | $292K | $330K | +13.2% | |
| Wright | $307K | $344K | +11.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niceville-Valparaiso | $374K | $413K | $201K | |
| Crestview (Tract 020500) | $264K | $284K | $142K | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022800) | $274K | $290K | $136K | |
| Crestview (Tract 020701) | $261K | $280K | $128K | |
| Crestview (Tract 020306) | $252K | $279K | $126K | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 021901) | $165K | $182K | $100K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Okaloosa, FL · ZIP 32578 · Census Tract 12091021002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$377K
Downside (P10)
$299K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$413K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$500K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $228K | $247K | $274K | $293K | $302K | $286K | $286K | $338K | $364K | $372K | $377K | $393K | $397K | $413K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$149,547 | -$130,147 | -$102,947 | -$84,747 | -$75,747 | -$91,147 | -$91,147 | -$39,847 | -$13,447 | -$5,547 | +$15,544 | +$19,263 | +$35,342 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -39.6% | -34.5% | -27.3% | -22.5% | -20.1% | -24.2% | -24.2% | -10.6% | -3.6% | -1.5% | +4.1% | +5.1% | +9.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $308K | $307K | $299K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $441K | $464K | $500K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$308K to $441K
33.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$299K to $500K
48.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niceville-Valparaiso | $374K | $413K | +10.3% | |
| Niceville-Valparaiso | $377K | $419K | +10.9% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022300) | $375K | $415K | +10.9% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022002) | $387K | $420K | +8.6% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022400) | $367K | $387K | +5.3% | |
| Destin | $361K | $378K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niceville-Valparaiso | $374K | $413K | +10.3% | |
| Crestview (Tract 020304) | $320K | $364K | +13.8% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 021700) | $447K | $507K | +13.5% | |
| Crestview (Tract 020305) | $318K | $360K | +13.3% | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022900) | $292K | $330K | +13.2% | |
| Wright | $307K | $344K | +11.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niceville-Valparaiso | $374K | $413K | $201K | |
| Crestview (Tract 020500) | $264K | $284K | $142K | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 022800) | $274K | $290K | $136K | |
| Crestview (Tract 020701) | $261K | $280K | $128K | |
| Crestview (Tract 020306) | $252K | $279K | $126K | |
| Fort Walton Beach (Tract 021901) | $165K | $182K | $100K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
