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Marion, FL · ZIP 34476 · Census Tract 12083001009 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$351K
Downside (P10)
$283K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$377K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$484K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $222K | $246K | $296K | $307K | $351K | $351K | $358K | $366K | $377K | $369K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$128,806 | -$105,406 | -$54,906 | -$44,206 | +$194 | +$7,465 | +$15,406 | +$26,528 | +$18,015 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.7% | -30.0% | -15.6% | -12.6% | +0.1% | +2.1% | +4.4% | +7.6% | +5.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $291K | $296K | $283K | $324K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $414K | $454K | $484K | $417K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$291K to $414K
34.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$324K to $417K
25.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty Triangle | $351K | $377K | +7.5% | |
| Reddick-McIntosh | $359K | $410K | +14.1% | |
| Ocala | $347K | $391K | +12.7% | |
| The Villages | $350K | $384K | +9.7% | |
| Belleview (Tract 001106) | $350K | $371K | +6.0% | |
| Belleview (Tract 000706) | $348K | $367K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty Triangle | $351K | $377K | +7.5% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002001) | $162K | $196K | +21.1% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002302) | $256K | $300K | +17.2% | |
| The Villages | $412K | $476K | +15.6% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002706) | $200K | $230K | +14.9% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002703) | $167K | $191K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty Triangle | $351K | $377K | $201K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000606) | $96K | $106K | $60K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000604) | $88K | $95K | $55K | |
| Belleview | $91K | $96K | $51K | |
| Ocala | $57K | $60K | $31K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000601) | $60K | $62K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Marion, FL · ZIP 34476 · Census Tract 12083001009 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$351K
Downside (P10)
$283K
-19% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$377K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$484K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -19% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $222K | $246K | $296K | $307K | $351K | $351K | $358K | $366K | $377K | $369K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$128,806 | -$105,406 | -$54,906 | -$44,206 | +$194 | +$7,465 | +$15,406 | +$26,528 | +$18,015 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -36.7% | -30.0% | -15.6% | -12.6% | +0.1% | +2.1% | +4.4% | +7.6% | +5.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $291K | $296K | $283K | $324K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $414K | $454K | $484K | $417K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$291K to $414K
34.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$324K to $417K
25.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty Triangle | $351K | $377K | +7.5% | |
| Reddick-McIntosh | $359K | $410K | +14.1% | |
| Ocala | $347K | $391K | +12.7% | |
| The Villages | $350K | $384K | +9.7% | |
| Belleview (Tract 001106) | $350K | $371K | +6.0% | |
| Belleview (Tract 000706) | $348K | $367K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty Triangle | $351K | $377K | +7.5% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002001) | $162K | $196K | +21.1% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002302) | $256K | $300K | +17.2% | |
| The Villages | $412K | $476K | +15.6% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002706) | $200K | $230K | +14.9% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002703) | $167K | $191K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty Triangle | $351K | $377K | $201K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000606) | $96K | $106K | $60K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000604) | $88K | $95K | $55K | |
| Belleview | $91K | $96K | $51K | |
| Ocala | $57K | $60K | $31K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000601) | $60K | $62K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
