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Marion, FL · ZIP 34473 · Census Tract 12083001013 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$244K
Downside (P10)
$210K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$260K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$356K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $143K | $138K | $198K | $226K | $239K | $244K | $246K | $255K | $260K | $248K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$100,699 | -$105,399 | -$45,499 | -$17,799 | -$4,499 | +$2,346 | +$11,235 | +$16,011 | +$3,995 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.3% | -43.2% | -18.7% | -7.3% | -1.8% | +1.0% | +4.6% | +6.6% | +1.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $211K | $214K | $210K | $220K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $294K | $300K | $356K | $283K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$211K to $294K
33.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$220K to $283K
25.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Oaks · Ocala · (Tract 10.13) | $242K | $260K | +7.6% | |
| Ocala (Tract 001301) | $246K | $278K | +12.9% | |
| Belleview (Tract 000805) | $241K | $259K | +7.5% | |
| Belleview (Tract 000707) | $246K | $263K | +6.7% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002503) | $245K | $254K | +3.8% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002504) | $243K | $246K | +1.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Oaks · Ocala · (Tract 10.13) | $242K | $260K | +7.6% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002001) | $162K | $196K | +21.1% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002302) | $256K | $300K | +17.2% | |
| The Villages | $412K | $476K | +15.6% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002706) | $200K | $230K | +14.9% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002703) | $167K | $191K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Oaks · Ocala · (Tract 10.13) | $242K | $260K | $145K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000606) | $96K | $106K | $60K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000604) | $88K | $95K | $55K | |
| Belleview | $91K | $96K | $51K | |
| Ocala | $57K | $60K | $31K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000601) | $60K | $62K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Marion, FL · ZIP 34473 · Census Tract 12083001013 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$244K
Downside (P10)
$210K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$260K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$356K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $143K | $138K | $198K | $226K | $239K | $244K | $246K | $255K | $260K | $248K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$100,699 | -$105,399 | -$45,499 | -$17,799 | -$4,499 | +$2,346 | +$11,235 | +$16,011 | +$3,995 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -41.3% | -43.2% | -18.7% | -7.3% | -1.8% | +1.0% | +4.6% | +6.6% | +1.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $211K | $214K | $210K | $220K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $294K | $300K | $356K | $283K |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$211K to $294K
33.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$220K to $283K
25.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Oaks · Ocala · (Tract 10.13) | $242K | $260K | +7.6% | |
| Ocala (Tract 001301) | $246K | $278K | +12.9% | |
| Belleview (Tract 000805) | $241K | $259K | +7.5% | |
| Belleview (Tract 000707) | $246K | $263K | +6.7% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002503) | $245K | $254K | +3.8% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002504) | $243K | $246K | +1.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Oaks · Ocala · (Tract 10.13) | $242K | $260K | +7.6% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002001) | $162K | $196K | +21.1% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002302) | $256K | $300K | +17.2% | |
| The Villages | $412K | $476K | +15.6% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002706) | $200K | $230K | +14.9% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002703) | $167K | $191K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Oaks · Ocala · (Tract 10.13) | $242K | $260K | $145K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000606) | $96K | $106K | $60K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000604) | $88K | $95K | $55K | |
| Belleview | $91K | $96K | $51K | |
| Ocala | $57K | $60K | $31K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000601) | $60K | $62K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
