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Marion, FL · ZIP 34491 · Census Tract 12083000810 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$303K
Downside (P10)
$238K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$315K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$425K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $216K | $221K | $272K | $284K | $300K | $303K | $311K | $314K | $315K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$87,376 | -$82,276 | -$30,976 | -$19,176 | -$2,776 | +$8,383 | +$10,929 | +$11,792 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.8% | -27.2% | -10.2% | -6.3% | -0.9% | +2.8% | +3.6% | +3.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $257K | $242K | $238K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $369K | $392K | $425K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$257K to $369K
36.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$238K to $425K
59.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belleview · Summerfield · (Tract 8.10) | $302K | $315K | +4.0% | |
| Dunnellon | $302K | $330K | +9.4% | |
| Marion Oaks | $289K | $314K | +8.7% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002100) | $315K | $340K | +8.0% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002507) | $299K | $315K | +5.5% | |
| Fellowship | $313K | $327K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belleview · Summerfield · (Tract 8.10) | $302K | $315K | +4.0% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002001) | $162K | $196K | +21.1% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002302) | $256K | $300K | +17.2% | |
| The Villages | $412K | $476K | +15.6% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002706) | $200K | $230K | +14.9% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002703) | $167K | $191K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belleview · Summerfield · (Tract 8.10) | $302K | $315K | $187K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000606) | $96K | $106K | $60K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000604) | $88K | $95K | $55K | |
| Belleview | $91K | $96K | $51K | |
| Ocala | $57K | $60K | $31K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000601) | $60K | $62K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Marion, FL · ZIP 34491 · Census Tract 12083000810 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$303K
Downside (P10)
$238K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$315K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$425K
+40% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +40%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $216K | $221K | $272K | $284K | $300K | $303K | $311K | $314K | $315K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$87,376 | -$82,276 | -$30,976 | -$19,176 | -$2,776 | +$8,383 | +$10,929 | +$11,792 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.8% | -27.2% | -10.2% | -6.3% | -0.9% | +2.8% | +3.6% | +3.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $257K | $242K | $238K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $369K | $392K | $425K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$257K to $369K
36.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$238K to $425K
59.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belleview · Summerfield · (Tract 8.10) | $302K | $315K | +4.0% | |
| Dunnellon | $302K | $330K | +9.4% | |
| Marion Oaks | $289K | $314K | +8.7% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002100) | $315K | $340K | +8.0% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002507) | $299K | $315K | +5.5% | |
| Fellowship | $313K | $327K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belleview · Summerfield · (Tract 8.10) | $302K | $315K | +4.0% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002001) | $162K | $196K | +21.1% | |
| Ocala (Tract 002302) | $256K | $300K | +17.2% | |
| The Villages | $412K | $476K | +15.6% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002706) | $200K | $230K | +14.9% | |
| Dunnellon (Tract 002703) | $167K | $191K | +14.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belleview · Summerfield · (Tract 8.10) | $302K | $315K | $187K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000606) | $96K | $106K | $60K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000604) | $88K | $95K | $55K | |
| Belleview | $91K | $96K | $51K | |
| Ocala | $57K | $60K | $31K | |
| East Marion (Tract 000601) | $60K | $62K | $27K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
