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Manatee, FL · Census Tract 12081200008 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.13M
Downside (P10)
$505K
-55% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$934K
-17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.61M
+43% by 2030
Base case: -17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -55% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 35% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.1M | $964K | $925K | $934K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$37,919 | -$163,583 | -$202,393 | -$192,966 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -3.4% | -14.5% | -18.0% | -17.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $774K | $637K | $490K | $505K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.6M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$774K to $1.5M
66.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$505K to $1.6M
118.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200008 | $1.13M | $934K | -17.1% | |
| Bradenton | $1.19M | $1.34M | +12.3% | |
| Myakka City | $1.27M | $1.25M | -1.8% | |
| Manatee (Tract 560007) | $956K | $892K | -6.7% | |
| Manatee (Tract 160009) | $962K | $878K | -8.8% | |
| Manatee (Tract 360003) | $962K | $824K | -14.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200008 | $1.13M | $934K | -17.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000305) | $223K | $256K | +15.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001801) | $681K | $774K | +13.6% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001204) | $578K | $650K | +12.5% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001802) | $1.19M | $1.34M | +12.3% | |
| South Bradenton | $169K | $190K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200008 | $1.13M | $934K | $1.10M | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000204) | $90K | $97K | $51K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000203) | $83K | $84K | $49K | |
| Bayshore Gardens | $148K | $155K | $40K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000105) | $128K | $129K | $31K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Manatee, FL · Census Tract 12081200008 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.13M
Downside (P10)
$505K
-55% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$934K
-17% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.61M
+43% by 2030
Base case: -17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -55% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 35% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.1M | $1.1M | $964K | $925K | $934K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$37,919 | -$163,583 | -$202,393 | -$192,966 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -3.4% | -14.5% | -18.0% | -17.1% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $774K | $637K | $490K | $505K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.5M | $1.6M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$774K to $1.5M
66.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$505K to $1.6M
118.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200008 | $1.13M | $934K | -17.1% | |
| Bradenton | $1.19M | $1.34M | +12.3% | |
| Myakka City | $1.27M | $1.25M | -1.8% | |
| Manatee (Tract 560007) | $956K | $892K | -6.7% | |
| Manatee (Tract 160009) | $962K | $878K | -8.8% | |
| Manatee (Tract 360003) | $962K | $824K | -14.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200008 | $1.13M | $934K | -17.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000305) | $223K | $256K | +15.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001801) | $681K | $774K | +13.6% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001204) | $578K | $650K | +12.5% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001802) | $1.19M | $1.34M | +12.3% | |
| South Bradenton | $169K | $190K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 200008 | $1.13M | $934K | $1.10M | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000204) | $90K | $97K | $51K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000203) | $83K | $84K | $49K | |
| Bayshore Gardens | $148K | $155K | $40K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000105) | $128K | $129K | $31K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
