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Manatee, FL · ZIP 34243 · Census Tract 12081000902 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$374K
Downside (P10)
$326K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$416K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$532K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $147K | $148K | $162K | $194K | $214K | $235K | $232K | $275K | $327K | $372K | $374K | $380K | $392K | $416K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$227,294 | -$225,794 | -$211,994 | -$179,794 | -$160,294 | -$139,194 | -$142,394 | -$99,094 | -$46,894 | -$1,594 | +$5,983 | +$17,876 | +$42,293 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -60.8% | -60.4% | -56.7% | -48.1% | -42.9% | -37.2% | -38.1% | -26.5% | -12.5% | -0.4% | +1.6% | +4.8% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $327K | $337K | $326K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $453K | $501K | $532K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$327K to $453K
33.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$326K to $532K
49.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton · Sarasota · (Tract 9.2) | $377K | $416K | +10.5% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000805) | $381K | $422K | +10.7% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000407) | $383K | $418K | +9.2% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001907) | $368K | $399K | +8.3% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000812) | $363K | $384K | +5.8% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000405) | $362K | $382K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton · Sarasota · (Tract 9.2) | $377K | $416K | +10.5% | |
| South Bradenton | $158K | $190K | +20.6% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000305) | $215K | $256K | +19.0% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000403) | $553K | $636K | +15.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001802) | $1.17M | $1.34M | +14.8% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001801) | $676K | $774K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton · Sarasota · (Tract 9.2) | $377K | $416K | $206K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000105) | $127K | $137K | $67K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000313) | $80K | $85K | $53K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000204) | $89K | $97K | $51K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000203) | $83K | $84K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Manatee, FL · ZIP 34243 · Census Tract 12081000902 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$374K
Downside (P10)
$326K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$416K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$532K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $147K | $148K | $162K | $194K | $214K | $235K | $232K | $275K | $327K | $372K | $374K | $380K | $392K | $416K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$227,294 | -$225,794 | -$211,994 | -$179,794 | -$160,294 | -$139,194 | -$142,394 | -$99,094 | -$46,894 | -$1,594 | +$5,983 | +$17,876 | +$42,293 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -60.8% | -60.4% | -56.7% | -48.1% | -42.9% | -37.2% | -38.1% | -26.5% | -12.5% | -0.4% | +1.6% | +4.8% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $327K | $337K | $326K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $453K | $501K | $532K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$327K to $453K
33.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$326K to $532K
49.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton · Sarasota · (Tract 9.2) | $377K | $416K | +10.5% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000805) | $381K | $422K | +10.7% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000407) | $383K | $418K | +9.2% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001907) | $368K | $399K | +8.3% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000812) | $363K | $384K | +5.8% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000405) | $362K | $382K | +5.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton · Sarasota · (Tract 9.2) | $377K | $416K | +10.5% | |
| South Bradenton | $158K | $190K | +20.6% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000305) | $215K | $256K | +19.0% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000403) | $553K | $636K | +15.1% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001802) | $1.17M | $1.34M | +14.8% | |
| Bradenton (Tract 001801) | $676K | $774K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradenton · Sarasota · (Tract 9.2) | $377K | $416K | $206K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000105) | $127K | $137K | $67K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000313) | $80K | $85K | $53K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000204) | $89K | $97K | $51K | |
| Bradenton (Tract 000203) | $83K | $84K | $49K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
