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Duval, FL · ZIP 32233 · Census Tract 12031013906 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$619K
Downside (P10)
$553K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$655K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$904K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $271K | $298K | $310K | $342K | $355K | $383K | $433K | $484K | $561K | $622K | $619K | $624K | $633K | $655K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$348,119 | -$321,819 | -$309,119 | -$277,419 | -$264,219 | -$236,319 | -$186,519 | -$135,719 | -$58,419 | +$2,781 | +$4,742 | +$13,755 | +$36,043 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -56.2% | -52.0% | -49.9% | -44.8% | -42.7% | -38.2% | -30.1% | -21.9% | -9.4% | +0.4% | +0.8% | +2.2% | +5.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $567K | $559K | $553K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $733K | $771K | $904K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$567K to $733K
26.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$553K to $904K
53.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Beaches | $627K | $655K | +4.5% | |
| Jacksonville Beach (Tract 014103) | $587K | $667K | +13.5% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 013000) | $611K | $669K | +9.5% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 014330) | $637K | $687K | +7.8% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000700) | $586K | $624K | +6.4% | |
| Jacksonville Beach (Tract 014206) | $613K | $641K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Beaches | $627K | $655K | +4.5% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 001500) | $99K | $119K | +20.9% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 014424) | $438K | $522K | +19.1% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 010601) | $277K | $328K | +18.7% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 010203) | $283K | $336K | +18.7% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 014425) | $421K | $498K | +18.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Beaches | $627K | $655K | $351K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000300) | $89K | $93K | $55K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 002802) | $77K | $91K | $50K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 002600) | $80K | $86K | $49K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000200) | $91K | $98K | $49K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 001600) | $77K | $85K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Duval, FL · ZIP 32233 · Census Tract 12031013906 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$619K
Downside (P10)
$553K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$655K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$904K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $271K | $298K | $310K | $342K | $355K | $383K | $433K | $484K | $561K | $622K | $619K | $624K | $633K | $655K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$348,119 | -$321,819 | -$309,119 | -$277,419 | -$264,219 | -$236,319 | -$186,519 | -$135,719 | -$58,419 | +$2,781 | +$4,742 | +$13,755 | +$36,043 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -56.2% | -52.0% | -49.9% | -44.8% | -42.7% | -38.2% | -30.1% | -21.9% | -9.4% | +0.4% | +0.8% | +2.2% | +5.8% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $567K | $559K | $553K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $733K | $771K | $904K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$567K to $733K
26.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$553K to $904K
53.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Beaches | $627K | $655K | +4.5% | |
| Jacksonville Beach (Tract 014103) | $587K | $667K | +13.5% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 013000) | $611K | $669K | +9.5% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 014330) | $637K | $687K | +7.8% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000700) | $586K | $624K | +6.4% | |
| Jacksonville Beach (Tract 014206) | $613K | $641K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Beaches | $627K | $655K | +4.5% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 001500) | $99K | $119K | +20.9% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 014424) | $438K | $522K | +19.1% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 010601) | $277K | $328K | +18.7% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 010203) | $283K | $336K | +18.7% | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 014425) | $421K | $498K | +18.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Beaches | $627K | $655K | $351K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000300) | $89K | $93K | $55K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 002802) | $77K | $91K | $50K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 002600) | $80K | $86K | $49K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 000200) | $91K | $98K | $49K | |
| Jacksonville (Tract 001600) | $77K | $85K | $40K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
